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BRAZIL › SERIE A
11.10.2026 00:00
Morumbi
Referee: Lucas Casagrande
Sao Paulo
Live Timeline
Vitoria
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
🟨
16'
Cacá
Vitoria
⚽
20'
Jonathan Calleri · Assist: Iago Amaral Borduchi
Sao Paulo
🟨
24'
Gustavo Santana
Sao Paulo
⚽
39'
Emmanuel Martínez · Assist: Erick
Vitoria
🟨
44'
Djhordney Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🔄
59'
Djhordney Ferreira ↔ Lucas Moura
Sao Paulo
🔄
59'
Lucas Ramon ↔ Marcos Antonio
Sao Paulo
🔄
69'
Lucas Silva ↔ Tomás Pochettino
Vitoria
⚽
70'
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.07
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.9%
1.67 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.07 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.20 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sao Paulo Win 78.9%
Draw 6.4%
Vitoria Win 14.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Paulo1.26
Vitoria1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WWDLW
33 GF / 34 GA
Vitoria Vitoria
WLDWL
32 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
16
BTTS Yes
11
11
Over 2.5
12
4.17
Shots on Goal
4.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 29 matches
Vitoria Vitoria 29 matches
Sao Paulo Statistic Vitoria
10 Wins 10
6 Draws 6
13 Losses 13
33 Goals For 32
34 Goals Against 42
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
16 BTTS Yes 11
22 Over 1.5 23
11 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 11
7 Failed To Score 9
4.17 Shots On Goal 4.31
13.34 Total Shots 12.31
6.86 Corners 4.52
53.1% Ball Possession 43.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Vitoria's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Vitoria arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vitoria. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sao Paulo expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Vitoria in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vitoria having the stronger overall control.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo sit 10 with 36 points after 28 league matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses with goals at 33:32 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luciano (8 goals), J. Calleri (6 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Luciano (2 assists), Artur (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Vitoria Analysis

With 33 points from 28 games and a place of 13, Vitoria still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 28:42 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Rene (9 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Erick (3 goals), with creative support from Erick (5 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Matheuzinho (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo won 11 times, Vitoria won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:15 from Sao Paulo's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.6%)
Predicted formations: Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1 / Vitoria 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sao Paulo 7, Vitoria 10
H2H summary: Sao Paulo wins 11, draws 0, Vitoria wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 29 17 9 3 48:21 27 60
W D W D D
3 29 14 9 6 48:36 12 51
W W L W D
4 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
5 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
6 29 12 10 7 43:36 7 46
L L W W W
7 29 12 8 9 39:34 5 44
D W D W L
8 29 11 9 9 45:43 2 42
D W W W W
9 29 10 8 11 37:47 -10 38
L L D L W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 29 10 6 13 33:34 -1 36
L L W L W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 28 9 7 12 36:42 -6 34
W W W L W
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B