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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
01.10.2026 01:00
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: A. Rojas
Atletico Nacional
Match Timeline
Junior
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
A. Sarmiento · Assist: N. Parra
Atletico Nacional
⚽
18'
A. Roman · Assist: J. Rodriguez
Atletico Nacional
🟨
20'
Neider Parra Moya
Atletico Nacional
🟨
22'
Déiber Caicedo
Junior
⚽
24'
G. Paiva · Assist: B. Castrillon
Junior
🔄
51'
A. Sarmiento ↔ J. Rosa
Atletico Nacional
🟨
52'
Elías Lautaro Cabrera
Atletico Nacional
🔄
62'
Y. A. Perlaza Perea ↔ E. Cardona
Atletico Nacional
🔄
62'
T. Gutierrez ↔ L. Muriel
Junior
🔄
62'
B. Castrillon ↔ C. Barrios
Junior
🟨
65'
Pablo Ortíz
Junior
🟨
65'
Milton Casco
Atletico Nacional
🟨
70'
Fabian Bernal
Junior
🔄
72'
F. S. Angel Bernal ↔ G. Celis
Junior
🔄
72'
D. Caicedo ↔ J. Sarmiento
Junior
⚽
72'
A. Roman · Assist: I. Poveda
Atletico Nacional
🟨
74'
Edwin Cardona
Atletico Nacional
🔄
74'
J. Rodriguez ↔ J. Zapata
Atletico Nacional
🔄
74'
E. Cabrera ↔ M. Uribe
Atletico Nacional
🔄
74'
I. Poveda ↔ E. Benitez
Atletico Nacional
🟨
77'
Ian Carlo Poveda
Atletico Nacional
🔄
83'
J. Rios ↔ J. Rivas
Junior
🟨
89'
Jermein Pena
Junior
🟨
90+2'
Daniel Rivera
Junior

Atletico Nacional vs Junior Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73%
Odds 1.44
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.67
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73%
1.44 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.67 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Nacional Win 73%
Draw 5.2%
Junior Win 21.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Nacional1.64
Junior1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WWDLW
70 GF / 38 GA
Junior Junior
WLDWL
57 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.84
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
18
BTTS Yes
21
24
Over 2.5
19
6.15
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 38 matches
Junior Junior 40 matches
Atletico Nacional Statistic Junior
24 Wins 16
3 Draws 9
11 Losses 15
70 Goals For 57
38 Goals Against 53
1.84 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
18 BTTS Yes 21
30 Over 1.5 32
24 Over 2.5 19
8 Over 3.5 9
11 Clean Sheets 10
10 Failed To Score 10
6.15 Shots On Goal 4.38
16.29 Total Shots 13.23
5.38 Corners 4.63
58.2% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Nacional expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Junior in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Junior having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Atletico Nacional come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Junior. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 40 points after 19 matches. They have recorded 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, with a 35:15 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on A. Morelos (13 goals), J. Rengifo (7 goals), A. Sarmiento (7 goals), with creative support from J. Rengifo (7 assists), A. Morelos (6 assists), A. Sarmiento (6 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Junior Analysis

Junior arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 35 points after 19 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 31:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Muriel (14 goals), T. Gutiérrez (7 goals), C. Barrios (5 goals), with creative support from G. Paiva (5 assists), Y. Súarez (4 assists), T. Gutiérrez (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Nacional won 4 times, Junior won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:21 from Atletico Nacional's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1 / Junior 4-4-2
H2H summary: Atletico Nacional wins 4, draws 4, Junior wins 7

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
D W D L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W D L W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D D D D L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D D W W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D L W D
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D W L L D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W W W D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L D D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L D D L
Post season qualification