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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
23.08.2026 23:00
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Referee: Tori Penso, USA
Atlanta United FC
Match Timeline
Sporting Kansas City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
13'
T. Jacob · Assist: M. Almiron
Atlanta United FC
🟨
22'
Emir Karić
Sporting Kansas City
⚽
24'
F. Picault · Assist: E. Baez
Atlanta United FC
🔄
45+2'
J. Davis ↔ J. Reynolds
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
62'
F. Picault ↔ W. Reilly
Atlanta United FC
🔄
62'
A. Gill ↔ L. Brennan
Atlanta United FC
🔄
62'
E. Karic ↔ J. Reid
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
62'
T. Calheira ↔ S. Afrifa
Sporting Kansas City
⚽
70'
S. Afrifa
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
72'
Luke Brennan
Atlanta United FC
🔄
73'
P. Diaz ↔ S. Gregersen
Atlanta United FC
🟨
76'
Elías Báez
Atlanta United FC
🔄
77'
C. Sanchez ↔ S. Alzate
Atlanta United FC
🔄
78'
↔ M. Edwards
Atlanta United FC
🔄
87'
Capita ↔ J. Bartlett
Sporting Kansas City

Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
80%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Atlanta United FC Win 63.3%
Draw 18.7%
Sporting Kansas City Win 18%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlanta United FC1.62
Sporting Kansas City1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WWDLW
31 GF / 38 GA
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WLDWL
24 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
2.12
15
BTTS Yes
13
14
Over 2.5
17
4.1
Shots on Goal
3.85

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 24 matches
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 26 matches
Atlanta United FC Statistic Sporting Kansas City
7 Wins 7
5 Draws 3
12 Losses 16
31 Goals For 24
38 Goals Against 55
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 2.12
15 BTTS Yes 13
20 Over 1.5 22
14 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 9
3 Clean Sheets 2
8 Failed To Score 11
4.1 Shots On Goal 3.85
12.55 Total Shots 9.55
4.65 Corners 3.7
50.6% Ball Possession 43.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sporting Kansas City. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atlanta United FC expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Sporting Kansas City in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sporting Kansas City having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

With 15 points from 19 games and a place of 15, Atlanta United FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 21:34, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Saba Lobzhanidze (2 goals), Ajani Fortune (2 goals), Miguel Almirón (2 goals), with creative support from Aleksey Miranchuk (3 assists), Saba Lobzhanidze (1 assists), Elías Báez (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

Sporting Kansas City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 14 points from 18 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 12 defeats with a 18:46 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Dejan Joveljić (4 goals), Manu García (2 goals), Calvin Harris (2 goals), with creative support from Manu García (3 assists), Calvin Harris (2 assists), Dejan Joveljić (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta United FC won 3 times, Sporting Kansas City won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:8 from Atlanta United FC's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (82%)
Predicted formations: Atlanta United FC 3-4-3 / Sporting Kansas City 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Atlanta United FC 3, Sporting Kansas City 2
H2H summary: Atlanta United FC wins 3, draws 1, Sporting Kansas City wins 2

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 19 6 3 59:22 37 63
W W W D L
2 28 13 10 5 68:50 18 49
W L D D D
3 28 14 6 8 51:40 11 48
W W W L L
4 28 14 4 10 45:39 6 46
L L W W W
5 28 13 7 8 50:40 10 46
W L W D W
6 28 12 6 10 56:45 11 42
W W W W W
7 28 11 4 13 51:66 -15 37
W L L W W
8 28 10 6 12 38:52 -14 36
W L W W L
9 27 9 9 9 58:65 -7 36
W L D D L
10 28 8 9 11 42:38 4 33
L D L W L
11 28 7 11 10 41:52 -11 32
W L L L W
12 27 6 12 9 34:46 -12 30
L D L D W
13 28 8 5 15 41:46 -5 29
L W W L L
14 28 7 6 15 33:48 -15 27
L D W D L
15 28 6 6 16 35:56 -21 24
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)