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BRAZIL › SERIE B
27.04.2026 22:00
Estádio Joaquim Portugal
Referee: L. Torezin
Athletic Club
Match Timeline
Nautico Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
17'
R. Tavares ↔ Samuel Otusanya
Athletic Club
🟨
20'
Derek Freitas
Nautico Recife
🟨
21'
Mateus Silva
Nautico Recife
🟨
24'
Ian Luccas
Athletic Club
🟨
42'
Marcelo Henrique
Athletic Club
🔄
56'
Ian Luccas ↔ Pedro Oliveira
Athletic Club
🔄
57'
Douglas Pele ↔ D. Vera
Athletic Club
🔄
66'
Gustavinho ↔ Kauan Lindes
Athletic Club
🔄
66'
Vinicius ↔ Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🔄
66'
Mateus Silva ↔ Yuri
Nautico Recife
🔄
72'
Junior Todinho ↔ Felipe Saraiva
Nautico Recife
⚽
81'
Victor Andrade · Assist: Yuri
Nautico Recife
🟨
82'
Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🟨
83'
Felipe Saraiva
Nautico Recife
🔄
86'
Luiz Felipe ↔ Samuel Felix
Nautico Recife
🔄
86'
Wenderson ↔ Ramon
Nautico Recife
🟨
90+4'
Zeca
Athletic Club

Athletic Club vs Nautico Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 77%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
77%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
76%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
74.1%
- ▥
HT / FT 1-1
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Athletic Club Win 51%
Draw 25.9%
Nautico Recife Win 23.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club1.44
Nautico Recife0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WWDLW
8 GF / 7 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
3 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
0.6
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
5
BTTS Yes
1
3
Over 2.5
2
4
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Athletic Club Athletic Club 5 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 5 matches
Athletic Club Statistic Nautico Recife
2 Wins 2
2 Draws 0
1 Losses 3
8 Goals For 3
7 Goals Against 6
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 0.6
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
5 BTTS Yes 1
5 Over 1.5 2
3 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 0
0 Clean Sheets 1
0 Failed To Score 3
4 Shots On Goal 3
10 Total Shots 13.4
3.2 Corners 6.6
39.6% Ball Possession 60.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Athletic Club's more proactive style and Nautico Recife's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nautico Recife. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Athletic Club expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Nautico Recife in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nautico Recife having the stronger overall control. Nautico Recife arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Athletic Club Analysis

So far, Athletic Club have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 8 points from 5 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Belezi (1 goals), Ian Luccas (1 goals), with creative support from Jota (1 assists), Ruan Assis (1 assists), Zeca (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife sit 17 with 6 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 3:6, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Vinícius (2 goals), Igor Fernandes (1 goals), with creative support from Dodo (1 assists), Yuri (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Athletic Club won 0 times, Nautico Recife won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Athletic Club's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (77%)
Predicted formations: Athletic Club 4-3-3 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Athletic Club wins 0, draws 1, Nautico Recife wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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