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TUNISIA › LIGUE 1
25.04.2026 14:30
Gabes Municipal Stadium
AS Gabes
Match Timeline
ES Metlaoui
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
23'
Y. Soltani
ES Metlaoui
⚽
67'
O. Naffati
AS Gabes

AS Gabes vs ES Metlaoui Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
55.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.1%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AS Gabes Win 28.3%
Draw 5.9%
ES Metlaoui Win 65.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Gabes0.61
ES Metlaoui0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
AS Gabes AS Gabes
WWDLW
10 GF / 30 GA
ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui
WLDWL
15 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
0.4
Average Goals Scored
0.6
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
7
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AS Gabes AS Gabes 25 matches
ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 25 matches
AS Gabes Statistic ES Metlaoui
3 Wins 7
8 Draws 11
14 Losses 7
10 Goals For 15
30 Goals Against 23
0.4 Avg Goals Scored 0.6
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
7 BTTS Yes 6
12 Over 1.5 11
7 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 13
16 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. AS Gabes have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward ES Metlaoui. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward ES Metlaoui having the stronger overall control. ES Metlaoui carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 32 points while AS Gabes sit 16 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

AS Gabes Analysis

AS Gabes approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 17 points from 25 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 10:30, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through G. Ahoudo (2 goals), H. Jmal (1 goals), H. Teka (1 goals), with creative support from H. Teka (1 assists), F. Ben Ammar (1 assists), N. El Beji (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

ES Metlaoui Analysis

ES Metlaoui sit 9 with 32 points after 25 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 11 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 14:23 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Ouled Behi (6 goals), B. N. Sylla (2 goals), C. Bodian (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, AS Gabes won 4 times, ES Metlaoui won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:17 from AS Gabes's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.46 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
H2H summary: AS Gabes wins 4, draws 2, ES Metlaoui wins 7

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 9 2 43:10 33 66
D W W D W
2 30 18 9 3 45:11 34 63
W L W D D
3 30 18 8 4 43:13 30 62
W W W D W
4 30 12 12 6 28:14 14 48
W D L L L
5 30 11 12 7 28:18 10 45
W L L W L
6 30 11 8 11 30:28 2 41
W W W L W
7 30 11 8 11 28:30 -2 41
L W L L W
8 30 9 13 8 19:25 -6 40
D L W W D
9 30 10 6 14 24:33 -9 36
D L L W L
10 30 8 11 11 18:22 -4 35
L D L W W
11 30 11 2 17 26:33 -7 35
D L W W L
12 30 8 9 13 18:29 -11 33
L L L L D
13 30 9 5 16 18:39 -21 32
D W L W L
14 30 9 4 17 20:41 -21 31
D W W L L
15 30 6 9 15 15:31 -16 27
L W W D W
16 30 3 9 18 11:37 -26 18
L L L L D
Champions League
CAF Confederation Cup
Relegation