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16.05.2026 16:30
UD Almeria Stadium
Referee: L. Bestard Servera
Almeria
Match Timeline
Las Palmas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
49'
Estanis Pedrola
Las Palmas
🟨
59'
Federico Bonini
Almeria
⚽
61'
A. Embarba
Almeria
🔄
69'
T. Miyashiro ↔ J. Viera
Las Palmas
🔄
69'
Marvin ↔ J. Herzog
Las Palmas
🔄
70'
A. Horta ↔ A. Puigmal
Almeria
🔄
70'
Leo Baptistao ↔ I. Baba
Almeria
🔄
74'
Alex Suarez ↔ V. Pezzolesi
Las Palmas
🔄
74'
E. Pedrola ↔ Pejino
Las Palmas
🔄
75'
M. de la Fuente ↔ Thalys
Almeria
⚽
79'
E. Clemente
Las Palmas
⚽
81'
Pejino · Assist: K. Rodriguez
Las Palmas
🔄
82'
A. Embarba ↔ J. Morcillo
Almeria
🔄
82'
S. Dzodic ↔ N. Melamed
Almeria
🟨
84'
Marcos Luna
Almeria
🔄
87'
Jese ↔ I. Bravo
Las Palmas
🟨
90+9'
Federico Bonini
Almeria
🟥
90+9'
Federico Bonini
Almeria

Almeria vs Las Palmas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Almeria Win 90.3%
Draw 0%
Las Palmas Win 9.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almeria1.59
Las Palmas1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almeria Almeria
WWDLW
81 GF / 60 GA
Las Palmas Las Palmas
WLDWL
53 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.98
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1
29
BTTS Yes
22
29
Over 2.5
18
5.5
Shots on Goal
4.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almeria Almeria 41 matches
Las Palmas Las Palmas 40 matches
Almeria Statistic Las Palmas
22 Wins 18
8 Draws 12
11 Losses 10
81 Goals For 53
60 Goals Against 40
1.98 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1
29 BTTS Yes 22
35 Over 1.5 28
29 Over 2.5 18
17 Over 3.5 9
9 Clean Sheets 14
5 Failed To Score 9
5.5 Shots On Goal 4.1
14.98 Total Shots 11.7
4.73 Corners 4.25
51.5% Ball Possession 54.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Las Palmas. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Almeria expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Las Palmas in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Las Palmas having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Almeria Analysis

Almeria approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 71 points after 39 outings. They have recorded 21 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, with a 78:58 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on S. Arribas (24 goals), A. Embarba (14 goals), Leo Baptistao (9 goals), with creative support from A. Embarba (9 assists), S. Arribas (7 assists), A. Munoz (6 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 14 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Las Palmas Analysis

Las Palmas come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 66 points after 39 matches. They have recorded 18 wins, 12 draws, and 9 losses, with a 52:37 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Jese (9 goals), M. Fuster (8 goals), A. Garcia (7 goals), with creative support from M. Fuster (10 assists), L. Amatucci (4 assists), Jese (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Almeria won 5 times, Las Palmas won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:10 from Almeria's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.92 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Almeria 4-2-3-1 / Las Palmas 4-4-2
H2H summary: Almeria wins 5, draws 4, Las Palmas wins 4

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
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