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09.05.2026 12:00
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Referee: D. Palencia
AD Ceuta FC
Match Timeline
Castellón
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
Youness Lachhab
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
27'
C. Redruello Nimo ↔ D. Gonzalez
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
48'
Aisar Ahmed
AD Ceuta FC
⚽
52'
F. Brignani · Assist: Ronaldo
Castellón
🔄
56'
P. Santiago ↔ A. Mabil
Castellón
🟨
64'
Rubén Díez
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
64'
Alberto Jiménez
Castellón
🔄
66'
A. Jakobsen ↔ O. Camara
Castellón
🔄
67'
Ronaldo ↔ Barri
Castellón
🔄
73'
Jamelli ↔ J. Campana
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
73'
Youness ↔ Anuar
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
73'
A. Ahmed ↔ S. Sanchez
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
81'
A. Jimenez ↔ A. Sienra
Castellón
🔄
81'
B. Cipenga ↔ R. Sanchez
Castellón
🔄
84'
M. Illescas ↔ G. Almenara
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
86'
Fabrizio Brignani
Castellón
⚽
87'
M. Fernandez Sanchez
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
88'
Anuar
AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC vs Castellón Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AD Ceuta FC Win 47.1%
Draw 0%
Castellón Win 52.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
AD Ceuta FC1.22
Castellón1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
WWDLW
48 GF / 59 GA
Castellón Castellón
WLDWL
65 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
21
BTTS Yes
23
22
Over 2.5
20
3.59
Shots on Goal
5.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC 40 matches
Castellón Castellón 39 matches
AD Ceuta FC Statistic Castellón
16 Wins 18
9 Draws 10
15 Losses 11
48 Goals For 65
59 Goals Against 49
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
21 BTTS Yes 23
29 Over 1.5 29
22 Over 2.5 20
10 Over 3.5 17
11 Clean Sheets 11
12 Failed To Score 9
3.59 Shots On Goal 5.03
10.46 Total Shots 14.49
3.92 Corners 6
49.2% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Castellón's more proactive style and AD Ceuta FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AD Ceuta FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Castellón in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Castellón having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Castellón. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

AD Ceuta FC Analysis

AD Ceuta FC sit 11 with 54 points after 38 league matches. Their overall return of 15 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 46:58 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Fernandez Sanchez (12 goals), Kuki Zalazar (6 goals), Jamelli (5 goals), with creative support from Kuki Zalazar (4 assists), K. Kone (4 assists), Jose Matos (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 11 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Castellón Analysis

Castellón come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 64 points after 38 matches. They have recorded 18 wins, 10 draws, and 10 losses, with a 65:48 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Álex Calatrava (13 goals), O. Camara (11 goals), Fabrizio Brignani (6 goals), with creative support from B. Cipenga (9 assists), Álex Calatrava (7 assists), I. Suero (6 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, AD Ceuta FC won 0 times, Castellón won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:9 from AD Ceuta FC's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3 / Castellón 4-4-2
H2H summary: AD Ceuta FC wins 0, draws 3, Castellón wins 1

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation