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DENMARK › 1. DIVISION
16.10.2026 17:00
Riisvangen

Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.9%
- ▥
BTTS No
55%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Aarhus Fremad Win 67.9%
Draw 11.1%
Esbjerg Win 21%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aarhus Fremad1.64
Esbjerg1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad
WWDLW
30 GF / 30 GA
Esbjerg Esbjerg
WLDWL
28 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.95
11
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 21 matches
Esbjerg Esbjerg 20 matches
Aarhus Fremad Statistic Esbjerg
6 Wins 3
8 Draws 6
7 Losses 11
30 Goals For 28
30 Goals Against 39
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.95
11 BTTS Yes 13
15 Over 1.5 17
11 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 7
7 Clean Sheets 1
7 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Aarhus Fremad's more proactive style and Esbjerg's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Esbjerg. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Esbjerg having the stronger overall control. Aarhus Fremad arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 13 points compared to Esbjerg in 12 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Esbjerg arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Aarhus Fremad Analysis

Aarhus Fremad arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 13 points after 9 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:9 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Esbjerg Analysis

Esbjerg approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 5 points from 9 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 10:19 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Aarhus Fremad won 4 times, Esbjerg won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:20 from Aarhus Fremad's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.69 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
H2H summary: Aarhus Fremad wins 4, draws 2, Esbjerg wins 7

Standings

1. Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 3 0 20:10 10 24
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 23:15 8 19
L D D W D
3 10 4 5 1 14:6 8 17
W D D W L
4 10 3 5 2 14:14 0 14
D D D W D
5 10 3 4 3 10:11 -1 13
L L D W D
6 9 4 1 4 12:16 -4 13
L D L L W
7 10 3 3 4 13:10 3 12
W W L L L
8 9 2 4 3 10:14 -4 10
D D L W W
9 10 2 3 5 13:16 -3 9
L D W D W
10 9 1 5 3 10:12 -2 8
D D L W D
11 9 1 4 4 11:17 -6 7
W D D D D
12 10 1 3 6 13:22 -9 6
D L D L L
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs