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18.04.2026 14:15
Ibercaja Estadio
Referee: A. Morilla
Zaragoza
Match Timeline
AD Ceuta FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Carlos Hernandez
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
22'
Anuar
AD Ceuta FC
⚽
32'
K. de la Fuente · Assist: Anuar
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
42'
M. Aguirregabiria ↔ J. Sebastian
Zaragoza
🔄
43'
H. Pinilla ↔ K. Kodro
Zaragoza
🔄
43'
K. Bare ↔ M. Mensah
Zaragoza
VAR
48'
Yago Cantero
AD Ceuta FC
🟥
49'
Yago Cantero
AD Ceuta FC
⚽
57'
R. Gonzalez · Assist: Francho
Zaragoza
🔄
64'
M. Illescas ↔ M. Domenech
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
65'
K. de la Fuente ↔ Youness
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
75'
Rober González
Zaragoza
🔄
76'
J. Larios ↔ D. Tasende
Zaragoza
🔄
80'
Anuar ↔ J. Campana
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
80'
Y. Bodiger ↔ Matos Jose
AD Ceuta FC
VAR
83'
Dani Gómez
Zaragoza
🟨
84'
Jose Matos
AD Ceuta FC
⚽
85'
D. Gomez
Zaragoza
🔄
87'
R. Gonzalez ↔ M. A. Cuenca
Zaragoza
🔄
87'
C. Redruello Nimo ↔ K. Zalazar
AD Ceuta FC
⚽
89'
M. Fernandez Sanchez · Assist: J. Campana
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
90+2'
Marcos Fernández
AD Ceuta FC

Zaragoza vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.7%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Zaragoza Win 47.7%
Draw 0%
AD Ceuta FC Win 52.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Zaragoza1.16
AD Ceuta FC1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Zaragoza Zaragoza
WWDLW
34 GF / 49 GA
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
WLDWL
44 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.51
19
BTTS Yes
19
13
Over 2.5
20
3.58
Shots on Goal
3.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Zaragoza Zaragoza 37 matches
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC 37 matches
Zaragoza Statistic AD Ceuta FC
9 Wins 15
10 Draws 7
18 Losses 15
34 Goals For 44
49 Goals Against 56
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.51
19 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 27
13 Over 2.5 20
7 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 11
3.58 Shots On Goal 3.58
12.06 Total Shots 10.47
4.69 Corners 4.11
46.8% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AD Ceuta FC. AD Ceuta FC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 49 points while Zaragoza sit 19 on 34, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Zaragoza have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Zaragoza expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and AD Ceuta FC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AD Ceuta FC having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Zaragoza Analysis

With 34 points from 35 games and a place of 19, Zaragoza still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 31:47, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Gomez (8 goals), K. Kodro (7 goals), J. El Yamiq (2 goals), with creative support from D. Tasende (4 assists), Martín Aguirregabiria (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

AD Ceuta FC Analysis

From their first 35 matches, AD Ceuta FC have collected 49 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 14 wins, 7 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 42:55 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Fernandez Sanchez (11 goals), Kuki Zalazar (6 goals), Jamelli (5 goals), with creative support from K. Kone (4 assists), Kuki Zalazar (3 assists), Jose Matos (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Zaragoza won 0 times, AD Ceuta FC won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Zaragoza's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Zaragoza 4-2-3-1 / AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
H2H summary: Zaragoza wins 0, draws 1, AD Ceuta FC wins 1

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
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