IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Regional Sports Centre
Referee: O. Moran
Waterford
Match Timeline
Shamrock Rovers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
W. Johnson
Waterford
37'
D. Watts · Assist: A. Brennan
Shamrock Rovers
🟨
41'
D. Watts
Shamrock Rovers
🟨
42'
S. Bradley
Shamrock Rovers
🟨
47'
K. Long
Waterford
🔄
56'
J. Houston ↔ J. Faria
Waterford
🟨
57'
J. Mahon
Waterford
🟨
63'
C. Noonan
Waterford
🔄
68'
C. Noonan ↔ T. Coyle
Waterford
🔄
68'
D. McMenamy ↔ L. Heeney
Waterford
🔄
70'
G. Burke ↔ A. Greene
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
70'
J. McGovern ↔ M. Noonan
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
75'
J. Mulraney ↔ A. Matthews
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
80'
T. Lonergan ↔ J. Voilas
Waterford
84'
M. Noonan · Assist: D. Watts
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
86'
D. Watts ↔ J. O'Sullivan
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
86'
J. Byrne ↔ C. Malley
Shamrock Rovers

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.4%
Odds 1.74
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.77
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.4%
1.74
BTTS Yes
86%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.77
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.9%
1.20
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 30.1%
Draw 12.5%
Shamrock Rovers Win 57.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.18
Shamrock Rovers1.81
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
38 GF / 50 GA
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers
WLDWL
41 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.85
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
17
BTTS Yes
11
15
Over 2.5
11
3.6
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 27 matches
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 23 matches
Waterford Statistic Shamrock Rovers
7 Wins 14
8 Draws 4
12 Losses 5
38 Goals For 41
50 Goals Against 19
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.85 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
17 BTTS Yes 11
22 Over 1.5 16
15 Over 2.5 11
12 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 10
8 Failed To Score 3
3.6 Shots On Goal 4.57
12.35 Total Shots 13.76
4.95 Corners 4.95
40.2% Ball Possession 61.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Shamrock Rovers's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 40 points while Waterford sit 10 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Shamrock Rovers. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Shamrock Rovers in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shamrock Rovers having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford sit 10 with 11 points after 19 league matches. The record of 1 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 21:40 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Lonergan (8 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), P. Amond (3 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), C. Noonan (2 assists), Evan McLaughlin (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Shamrock Rovers Analysis

Shamrock Rovers approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 40 points after 20 outings. They have recorded 12 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a 31:17 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on G. Burke (6 goals), John McGovern (4 goals), M. Noonan (3 goals), with creative support from J. Byrne (4 assists), John McGovern (3 assists), T. Sobowale (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 2 times, Shamrock Rovers won 12 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:29 from Waterford's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 5-3-2 / Shamrock Rovers 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Waterford wins 2, draws 1, Shamrock Rovers wins 12

Lineups

Waterford
Formation
Shamrock Rovers
S. McMullan
S. McMullan
H. Cann
H. Cann
J. Mahon
J. Mahon
K. Long
K. Long
J. Houston
J. Houston
W. Johnson
W. Johnson
C. Noonan
C. Noonan
B. Couto
B. Couto
D. McMenamy
D. McMenamy
P. Amond
P. Amond
T. Lonergan
T. Lonergan
E. McGinty
E. McGinty
T. Sobowale
T. Sobowale
L. Grace
L. Grace
E. Stevens
E. Stevens
J. Mulraney
J. Mulraney
M. Healy
M. Healy
J. Byrne
J. Byrne
A. Brennan
🎯
A. Brennan
D. Watts
🎯
D. Watts
J. McGovern
J. McGovern
G. Burke
G. Burke
Waterford 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
S. McMullan
16
H. Cann
5
J. Mahon
🟨 57'
13
K. Long
🟨 47'
2
J. Houston
↓ 56'
4
W. Johnson
🟨 25'
10
C. Noonan
↓ 68' 🟨 63'
3
B. Couto
27
D. McMenamy
↓ 68'
9
P. Amond
18
T. Lonergan
↓ 80'
Substitutes
21
A. Doherty
11
T. Coyle
↑ 68'
15
L. Heeney
↑ 68'
20
J. Voilas
↑ 80'
19
S. Glenfield
32
G. Amedu
17
J. Faria
↑ 56'
7
C. Carty
22
R. Mansfield
Shamrock Rovers 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
E. McGinty
22
T. Sobowale
5
L. Grace
3
E. Stevens
11
J. Mulraney
↓ 75'
8
M. Healy
29
J. Byrne
↓ 86'
19
A. Brennan
🎯 37'
7
D. Watts
⚽ 37' 🎯 84' ↓ 86' 🟨 41'
88
J. McGovern
↓ 70'
10
G. Burke
↓ 70'
Substitutes
41
A. Noonan
2
A. Matthews
↑ 75'
9
A. Greene
↑ 70'
27
C. O'Sullivan
26
J. O'Sullivan
↑ 86'
23
C. Malley
↑ 86'
28
N. Razi
31
M. Noonan
⚽ 84' ↑ 70'
38
M. Kovalevskis
Last matches: Waterford
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
20.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
13.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
2
L
06.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
Last matches: Shamrock Rovers
22.06.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
1
1
D
12.06.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
1
2
L
29.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
25.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
2
1
W
22.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
15.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
0
1
L
08.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Galway United
3
1
W
04.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Drogheda United
4
1
W
01.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
0
1
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
06.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
3
2
W
03.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Galway United
2
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Drogheda United
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
09.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
1
0
W
27.02.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
2
3
L
H2H: Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers
01.05.26
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
1
0
L
03.04.26
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
22.09.25
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
27.06.25
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
1
0
L
16.05.25
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
L
11.04.25
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
2
0
L
01.11.24
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
2
1
L
02.08.24
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
06.05.24
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
1
3
W
01.04.24
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
04.02.23
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
0
2
W
05.11.21
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
L
10.09.21
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
2
0
L
18.06.21
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
4
L
03.05.21
H2H
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
3
0
L
Last matches: Waterford
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
20.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
06.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bohemians
1
4
L
20.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Kerry
3
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Riverstown FC
3
1
W
H2H at home: Waterford
03.04.26
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
22.09.25
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
16.05.25
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
L
02.08.24
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
01.04.24
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
05.11.21
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
L
18.06.21
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
4
L
Last matches: Shamrock Rovers
12.06.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
1
2
L
25.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
0
1
L
08.05.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Galway United
3
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
03.04.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Waterford
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Drogheda United
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
09.03.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pre
Shamrock Rovers
Bohemians
2
3
L
11.12.25
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Breidablik
1
3
L
06.11.25
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
AEK Athens FC
1
1
D
02.10.25
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Sparta Praha
1
4
L
21.08.25
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Santa Clara
2
1
W
07.08.25
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
Ballkani
0
1
L
24.07.25
UEF
Shamrock Rovers
St Joseph S Fc
4
0
W
H2H away: Shamrock Rovers
03.04.26
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
22.09.25
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
W
16.05.25
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
W
02.08.24
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
W
01.04.24
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
W
05.11.21
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
3
W
18.06.21
H2H
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
4
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.74
Draw 3.88
Home 4.77
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.24
Draw 2.48
Home 5.09
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.24
Over 2.25 1.56
Over 2.5 1.77
Over 2.75 1.98
Over 3.0 2.31
Over 3.25 2.62
Over 3.5 2.92
Over 4.5 5.59
Under 1.5 4.16
Under 2.25 2.49
Under 2.5 2.11
Under 2.75 1.89
Under 3.0 1.65
Under 3.25 1.52
Under 3.5 1.42
Under 4.5 1.16
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.60
Draw 3.90
Home 4.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.10
Draw 2.38
Home 5.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 1.95
Draw 2.62
Home 4.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.5 1.70
Over 3.5 2.75
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 4.00
Under 2.5 2.10
Under 3.5 1.40
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.05
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.71
Draw 3.80
Home 4.56
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.23
Draw 2.22
Home 5.09
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.01
Draw 2.66
Home 4.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.10
Over 1.5 1.19
Over 1.75 1.25
Over 2.0 1.31
Over 2.25 1.54
Over 2.5 1.74
Over 2.75 1.87
Over 3.0 2.17
Over 3.25 2.42
Over 3.5 2.71
Over 3.75 3.20
Over 4.0 4.25
Over 4.25 4.60
Over 4.5 4.95
Over 4.75 6.24
Over 5.0 8.70
Over 5.5 9.50
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 11.80
Under 1.0 8.50
Under 1.25 5.25
Under 1.5 3.82
Under 1.75 3.46
Under 2.0 3.05
Under 2.25 2.42
Under 2.5 2.05
Under 2.75 1.80
Under 3.0 1.59
Under 3.25 1.45
Under 3.5 1.36
Under 3.75 1.26
Under 4.0 1.15
Under 4.25 1.13
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 4.75 1.06
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.60
Draw 3.85
Home 5.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.12
Draw 2.28
Home 5.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 1.96
Draw 2.65
Home 4.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.24
Over 2.0 1.37
Over 2.25 1.58
Over 2.5 1.78
Over 2.75 2.00
Over 3.0 2.35
Over 3.25 2.63
Over 3.5 2.90
Over 3.75 3.55
Over 4.0 4.70
Over 4.25 5.00
Over 4.5 5.30
Under 1.5 3.60
Under 2.0 2.80
Under 2.25 2.20
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 2.75 1.71
Under 3.0 1.50
Under 3.25 1.41
Under 3.5 1.34
Under 3.75 1.24
Under 4.0 1.15
Under 4.25 1.13
Under 4.5 1.11

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 13 5 5 35:20 15 44
D W L W W
2 21 11 5 5 35:17 18 38
W W L D L
3 23 10 7 6 36:27 9 37
W L L W L
4 21 9 8 4 34:29 5 35
W W W D W
5 22 7 9 6 31:32 -1 30
L D W D D
6 23 5 11 7 28:27 1 26
D L W L D
7 20 6 6 8 28:31 -3 24
W L D L W
8 21 5 7 9 27:36 -9 22
D L D D L
9 21 5 4 12 15:33 -18 19
L L L W L
10 21 2 8 11 25:42 -17 14
L W D L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1