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GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
09.05.2026 13:30
MHPArena
Referee: Robert Schröder, Germany
VfB Stuttgart
Match Timeline
Bayer Leverkusen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
A. Garcia · Assist: C. Kofane
Bayer Leverkusen
⚽
5'
E. Demirovic · Assist: N. Nartey
VfB Stuttgart
VAR
45+4'
Ermedin Demirović
VfB Stuttgart
⚽
45'
M. Mittelstadt
VfB Stuttgart
⚽
58'
D. Undav · Assist: J. Leweling
VfB Stuttgart
🔄
65'
A. Garcia ↔ M. Tillman
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
65'
M. Culbreath ↔ Arthur
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
68'
D. Undav ↔ T. Tomas
VfB Stuttgart
🔄
78'
M. Mittelstadt ↔ L. Jaquez
VfB Stuttgart
🔄
78'
N. Nartey ↔ B. El Khannouss
VfB Stuttgart
🔄
78'
C. Kofane ↔ E. Poku
Bayer Leverkusen
🟨
80'
Chris Führich
VfB Stuttgart
🔄
86'
J. Quansah ↔ E. Ben Seghir
Bayer Leverkusen
🔄
87'
J. Leweling ↔ J. Vagnoman
VfB Stuttgart
🔄
87'
C. Fuhrich ↔ L. Assignon
VfB Stuttgart
🟨
90+7'
Tiago Tomás
VfB Stuttgart
🟨
90+7'
Exequiel Palacios
Bayer Leverkusen

VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
VfB Stuttgart Win 37.3%
Draw 19.1%
Bayer Leverkusen Win 43.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
VfB Stuttgart1.7
Bayer Leverkusen1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart
WWDLW
87 GF / 63 GA
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
WLDWL
82 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
1.86
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
25
BTTS Yes
25
30
Over 2.5
23
6.09
Shots on Goal
4.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 45 matches
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 44 matches
VfB Stuttgart Statistic Bayer Leverkusen
23 Wins 21
7 Draws 12
15 Losses 11
87 Goals For 82
63 Goals Against 60
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
25 BTTS Yes 25
38 Over 1.5 37
30 Over 2.5 23
20 Over 3.5 16
13 Clean Sheets 13
8 Failed To Score 7
6.09 Shots On Goal 4.75
16.07 Total Shots 14
5.76 Corners 5.27
58.5% Ball Possession 57.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bayer Leverkusen. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VfB Stuttgart expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bayer Leverkusen in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bayer Leverkusen having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Bayer Leverkusen look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

VfB Stuttgart Analysis

VfB Stuttgart arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 58 points after 32 matches. The record of 17 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 66:46 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Deniz Undav (18 goals), Ermedin Demirović (11 goals), C. Fuhrich (7 goals), with creative support from Jamie Leweling (9 assists), C. Fuhrich (6 assists), Deniz Undav (5 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Bayer Leverkusen Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 58 points from 32 games, Bayer Leverkusen bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 17 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 66:43, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by P. Schick (16 goals), A. Grimaldo (8 goals), M. Tillman (6 goals), with creative support from A. Grimaldo (8 assists), A. Garcia (7 assists), E. Poku (5 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 2 times, Bayer Leverkusen won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:32 from VfB Stuttgart's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.9%)
Predicted formations: VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1 / Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1
Missing players: VfB Stuttgart 3, Bayer Leverkusen 1
H2H summary: VfB Stuttgart wins 2, draws 6, Bayer Leverkusen wins 7

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
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