ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: R. Maalinn
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Trans Narva
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
38'
H. Valja
Vaprus
57'
K. Aloe · Assist: M. Limberg
Vaprus
🔄
62'
A. Skinjov ↔ S. Kondrattsev
Trans Narva
🔄
62'
A. Ivanyushin ↔ A. Jegorov
Trans Narva
🔄
67'
D. Poliakov ↔ Elysee
Trans Narva
🟨
69'
A. Jegorov
Trans Narva
🔄
74'
J. Poder ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🔄
74'
M. Limberg ↔ S. Viidas
Vaprus
🔄
77'
A. Filatov ↔ V. Shantenkov
Trans Narva
🔄
77'
Eriks Santos ↔ A. Besigirskis
Trans Narva
🔄
90+1'
T. Pajo ↔ R. Orm
Vaprus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 100%
Draw 0%
Trans Narva Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus2.08
Trans Narva1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
30 GF / 33 GA
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WLDWL
21 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.17
2.06
Average Goals Conceded
2.39
9
BTTS Yes
11
11
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 16 matches
Trans Narva Trans Narva 18 matches
Vaprus Statistic Trans Narva
5 Wins 3
2 Draws 4
9 Losses 11
30 Goals For 21
33 Goals Against 43
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
2.06 Avg Goals Conceded 2.39
9 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 16
11 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Trans Narva. Trans Narva arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Trans Narva having the stronger overall control.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus sit 8 with 10 points after 10 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 11:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Valja (5 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), K. Aloe (1 goals), with creative support from M. Lepik (2 assists), K. Aloe (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva sit 10 with 6 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 8 defeats with a 9:29 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Gero (4 goals), S. Agaptsev (2 goals), C. Campagna (1 goals), with creative support from A. Ivanyushin (2 assists), D. Poliakov (2 assists), S. Agaptsev (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 4 times, Trans Narva won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:21 from Vaprus's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 4, draws 5, Trans Narva wins 6

Lineups

Vaprus
Formation
Trans Narva
O. Nomm
O. Nomm
S. Aer
S. Aer
M. Lipp
M. Lipp
M. Seppik
M. Seppik
K. Aloe
K. Aloe
M. Villota
M. Villota
H. Valja
H. Valja
M. Limberg
🎯
M. Limberg
T. Pajo
T. Pajo
J. Poder
J. Poder
M. Lepik
M. Lepik
D. Pareiko
D. Pareiko
A. Skinjov
A. Skinjov
C. Campagna
C. Campagna
Eriks Santos
Eriks Santos
A. Ivanyushin
A. Ivanyushin
S. Agaptsev
S. Agaptsev
G. Slein
G. Slein
D. Poliakov
D. Poliakov
A. Filatov
A. Filatov
N. Baljabkin
N. Baljabkin
A. Gero
A. Gero
Vaprus 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
O. Nomm
5
S. Aer
28
M. Lipp
43
M. Seppik
15
K. Aloe
⚽ 57'
24
M. Villota
20
H. Valja
⚽ 38'
42
M. Limberg
🎯 57' ↓ 74'
8
T. Pajo
↓ 90+1'
9
J. Poder
↓ 74'
22
M. Lepik
Substitutes
1
H. Vainu
3
K. Rand
7
V. Vallik
↑ 74'
10
S. Viidas
↑ 74'
14
R. Orm
↑ 90+1'
19
A. Korre
47
S. Kolvart
64
J. Allas
81
E. Dolgov
86
R. Roosson
90
J. Sild
12
M. Ristimets
Trans Narva 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
27
D. Pareiko
17
A. Skinjov
↓ 62'
5
C. Campagna
12
Eriks Santos
↓ 77'
4
A. Ivanyushin
↓ 62'
8
S. Agaptsev
6
G. Slein
39
D. Poliakov
↓ 67'
14
A. Filatov
↓ 77'
47
N. Baljabkin
10
A. Gero
Substitutes
1
M. Zahharov
2
V. Shantenkov
↑ 77'
7
M. Velijev
16
S. Kondrattsev
↑ 62'
23
A. Jegorov
↑ 62' 🟨 69'
28
K. Miranda da Silva
29
V. Kudriashov
37
A. Timoska
88
A. Besigirskis
↑ 77'
19
Elysee
↑ 67'
Last matches: Vaprus
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
Last matches: Trans Narva
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
H2H: Vaprus vs Trans Narva
09.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
21.03.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
L
15.02.26
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
18.10.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
1
1
D
12.07.25
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
0
D
11.05.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
4
2
L
23.04.25
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
04.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
3
1
L
27.10.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
1
1
D
20.07.24
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
0
D
15.06.24
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
4
L
04.05.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
0
D
27.09.23
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
3
2
W
08.07.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
4
W
07.05.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
W
Last matches: Vaprus
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vaprus
09.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
15.02.26
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
12.07.25
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
0
D
23.04.25
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
20.07.24
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
0
D
15.06.24
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
4
L
27.09.23
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
3
2
W
Last matches: Trans Narva
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
0
D
H2H away: Trans Narva
09.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
L
15.02.26
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
W
12.07.25
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
0
D
23.04.25
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
W
20.07.24
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
0
D
15.06.24
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
4
W
27.09.23
H2H
Vaprus
Trans Narva
3
2
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga