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09.05.2026 16:30
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla
Referee: A. Fuentes
Valladolid
Match Timeline
Zaragoza
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
J. Latasa · Assist: M. Lachuer
Valladolid
🟨
15'
Pablo Insua
Zaragoza
🟨
24'
Stipe Biuk
Valladolid
🟨
41'
David Torres
Valladolid
🟨
45+2'
Jawad El Yamiq
Zaragoza
🔄
46'
J. El Yamiq ↔ A. Gomes
Zaragoza
🔄
57'
M. A. Cuenca ↔ H. Pinilla
Zaragoza
🟨
58'
Julien Ponceau
Valladolid
🟨
59'
Mathis Lachuer
Valladolid
🔄
63'
Peter Federico ↔ L. Sanseviero
Valladolid
🔄
63'
M. Lachuer ↔ M. Maroto
Valladolid
🔄
65'
Francho ↔ K. Kodro
Zaragoza
🟨
67'
Mario Maroto
Valladolid
🔄
72'
J. Ponceau ↔ Marcos Andre
Valladolid
🔄
78'
P. Insua ↔ M. Soberon
Zaragoza
🟨
80'
Carlos Pomares
Zaragoza
🔄
80'
D. Gomez ↔ C. Pomares
Zaragoza
🟥
82'
Mario Soberón
Zaragoza
🔄
85'
S. Biuk ↔ A. Ndiaye
Valladolid
🔄
85'
J. Latasa ↔ A. Carvajal
Valladolid
⚽
87'
A. Carvajal
Valladolid
🟨
90+1'
Juan Larios
Zaragoza

Valladolid vs Zaragoza Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
61.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Valladolid Win 78.7%
Draw 0%
Zaragoza Win 21.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valladolid1.16
Zaragoza1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valladolid Valladolid
WWDLW
41 GF / 51 GA
Zaragoza Zaragoza
WLDWL
36 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
0.9
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
16
BTTS Yes
20
17
Over 2.5
14
4
Shots on Goal
3.62

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valladolid Valladolid 39 matches
Zaragoza Zaragoza 40 matches
Valladolid Statistic Zaragoza
11 Wins 9
10 Draws 11
18 Losses 20
41 Goals For 36
51 Goals Against 53
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 0.9
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
16 BTTS Yes 20
23 Over 1.5 25
17 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 8
16 Failed To Score 15
4 Shots On Goal 3.62
12.66 Total Shots 12.13
5.58 Corners 4.82
49.4% Ball Possession 47.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Zaragoza. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Valladolid Analysis

Valladolid sit 15 with 43 points after 38 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 17 defeats with a 41:50 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Chuki (7 goals), J. Latasa (6 goals), Peter González (6 goals), with creative support from Chuki (7 assists), S. Biuk (5 assists), Julien Ponceau (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Zaragoza Analysis

Zaragoza sit 21 with 35 points after 38 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 19 defeats with a 33:51 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Gomez (9 goals), K. Kodro (7 goals), J. El Yamiq (2 goals), with creative support from D. Tasende (4 assists), Martín Aguirregabiria (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Valladolid won 6 times, Zaragoza won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:8 from Valladolid's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Valladolid 4-2-3-1 / Zaragoza 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Valladolid wins 6, draws 4, Zaragoza wins 2

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
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