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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
30.05.2026 08:00
Peace Stadium
Referee: M. Ueda
V-varen Nagasaki
Match Timeline
Mito Hollyhock
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
Matheus Jesus · Assist: T. Kasayanagi
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
59'
M. Arai ↔ H. Yamamoto
Mito Hollyhock
🔄
59'
K. Tada ↔ Patryck
Mito Hollyhock
🔄
61'
H. Nabeshima ↔ Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
61'
K. Takahata ↔ S. Yoneda
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
72'
T. Kasayanagi ↔ T. Matsumoto
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
74'
C. Kato ↔ Y. Nagao
Mito Hollyhock
🔄
74'
Matheus Leiria ↔ K. Ando
Mito Hollyhock
🔄
79'
Y. Torikai ↔ R. Nemoto
Mito Hollyhock
🔄
83'
Y. Egawa ↔ H. Teruyama
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
83'
M. Hasegawa ↔ K. Nakamura
V-varen Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki vs Mito Hollyhock Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
V-varen Nagasaki Win 71.6%
Draw 17.1%
Mito Hollyhock Win 11.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
V-varen Nagasaki1.52
Mito Hollyhock1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WWDLW
22 GF / 28 GA
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock
WLDWL
21 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
2.05
10
BTTS Yes
13
10
Over 2.5
10
3.56
Shots on Goal
3.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 19 matches
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 19 matches
V-varen Nagasaki Statistic Mito Hollyhock
7 Wins 2
2 Draws 8
10 Losses 9
22 Goals For 21
28 Goals Against 39
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 2.05
10 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 4
3.56 Shots On Goal 3.39
11.11 Total Shots 11.22
4 Corners 3.61
46.9% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Mito Hollyhock. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with V-varen Nagasaki expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Mito Hollyhock in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mito Hollyhock having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

V-varen Nagasaki approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 21 points from 18 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 21:29, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Matheus Jesus (6 goals), Thiago (6 goals), N. Campbell (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Jesus (4 assists), N. Campbell (2 assists), Motoki Hasegawa (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mito Hollyhock Analysis

Mito Hollyhock approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 18 points from 18 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 23:39, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Watanabe (4 goals), C. Kato (3 goals), K. Ando (2 goals), with creative support from K. Tada (3 assists), T. Semba (2 assists), A. Watanabe (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, V-varen Nagasaki won 10 times, Mito Hollyhock won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from V-varen Nagasaki's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (88.6%)
Predicted formations: V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1 / Mito Hollyhock 4-4-2
H2H summary: V-varen Nagasaki wins 10, draws 1, Mito Hollyhock wins 4

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)