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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
01.05.2026 21:30
Olimpico Atahualpa
Referee: Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista, Ecuador
Universidad Catolica
Match Timeline
Independiente del Valle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
3'
E. Pata
Independiente del Valle
⚽
8'
G. Anangono
Independiente del Valle
VAR
12'
Mauro Díaz
Independiente del Valle
⚽
16'
E. Pata · Assist: J. Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
🟨
26'
Juan Viacava
Independiente del Valle
⚽
35'
E. Clavijo · Assist: M. Diaz
Universidad Catolica
🟨
44'
Jhegson Méndez
Independiente del Valle
🟨
45+7'
José Fajardo
Universidad Catolica
🔄
46'
E. Valencia ↔ M. Alonso
Universidad Catolica
🔄
46'
J. Sornoza ↔ R. Briones
Independiente del Valle
🔄
46'
D. Reasco ↔ C. Gonzalez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
46'
A. Velasco ↔ M. Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
🟨
51'
Ronald Briones
Independiente del Valle
⚽
53'
M. Sevillano · Assist: M. Diaz
Universidad Catolica
🟨
64'
Darwin Guagua
Independiente del Valle
🟨
72'
Carlos González
Independiente del Valle
🟨
72'
Mateo Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
🔄
73'
E. Clavijo ↔ A. Rodriguez
Universidad Catolica
🔄
76'
E. Pata ↔ A. Rodriguez
Independiente del Valle
🟨
81'
Arón Rodríguez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
84'
G. Anangono ↔ D. Nazareno
Universidad Catolica
🔄
84'
J. Cacciabue ↔ F. Martinez
Universidad Catolica
🔄
84'
A. Londono ↔ B. Palacios
Universidad Catolica
🔄
84'
D. Guagua ↔ A. Gomez
Independiente del Valle
🟨
86'
Mauro Díaz
Universidad Catolica

Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 89.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 59.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
89.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
61%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
59.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Universidad Catolica Win 48.8%
Draw 10.1%
Independiente del Valle Win 41.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universidad Catolica1.45
Independiente del Valle1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WWDLW
24 GF / 12 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
26 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.73
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
6
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
8
4.69
Shots on Goal
5.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 14 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 15 matches
Universidad Catolica Statistic Independiente del Valle
7 Wins 10
4 Draws 2
3 Losses 3
24 Goals For 26
12 Goals Against 16
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
6 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 13
5 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 3
4.69 Shots On Goal 5.79
13.23 Total Shots 18.86
4.15 Corners 6.57
58.4% Ball Possession 60.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universidad Catolica expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independiente del Valle. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Universidad Catolica approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 22 points after 11 outings. They have recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, with a 19:5 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on B. Palacios (5 goals), E. Clavijo (3 goals), Jhon Chancellor (2 goals), with creative support from Mauro Díaz (3 assists), Jhon Chancellor (2 assists), E. Mejia (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 25 points after 11 outings. They have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, with a 19:11 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on D. Reasco (3 goals), M. Perello (3 goals), A. Rodriguez (2 goals), with creative support from D. Reasco (3 assists), M. Perello (2 assists), A. Rodriguez (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Universidad Catolica won 6 times, Independiente del Valle won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:26 from Universidad Catolica's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Universidad Catolica wins 6, draws 2, Independiente del Valle wins 7

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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