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GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
18.04.2026 13:30
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Referee: Florian Badstubner, Germany
Union Berlin
Match Timeline
VfL Wolfsburg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
P. Wimmer · Assist: J. Maehle
VfL Wolfsburg
⚽
46'
D. Pejcinovic · Assist: C. Eriksen
VfL Wolfsburg
🟨
58'
Jeanuël Belocian
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
68'
I. Ansah ↔ T. Skarke
Union Berlin
🔄
68'
T. Rothe ↔ D. Kohn
Union Berlin
🔄
71'
P. Wimmer ↔ Y. Gerhardt
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
71'
M. Amoura ↔ A. Daghim
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
75'
A. Kemlein ↔ A. Schafer
Union Berlin
🟨
78'
Rani Khedira
Union Berlin
⚽
85'
O. Burke · Assist: A. Ilic
Union Berlin
🔄
86'
C. Eriksen ↔ M. Arnold
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
87'
R. Khedira ↔ L. Burcu
Union Berlin
🔄
88'
C. Trimmel ↔ J. Haberer
Union Berlin
🔄
90+3'
A. Zehnter ↔ M. Jenz
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
90+3'
D. Pejcinovic ↔ K. Shiogai
VfL Wolfsburg

Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 71.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
71.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.3%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Union Berlin Win 65.3%
Draw 0%
VfL Wolfsburg Win 34.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Berlin1.58
VfL Wolfsburg1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union Berlin Union Berlin
WWDLW
33 GF / 50 GA
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg
WLDWL
39 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.72
Average Goals Conceded
2.24
17
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
20
3.59
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union Berlin Union Berlin 29 matches
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 29 matches
Union Berlin Statistic VfL Wolfsburg
8 Wins 5
8 Draws 6
13 Losses 18
33 Goals For 39
50 Goals Against 65
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.72 Avg Goals Conceded 2.24
17 BTTS Yes 22
21 Over 1.5 24
16 Over 2.5 20
12 Over 3.5 14
6 Clean Sheets 1
8 Failed To Score 6
3.59 Shots On Goal 4
12 Total Shots 11.69
4.86 Corners 4.03
38.8% Ball Possession 45.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. VfL Wolfsburg seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Union Berlin expected to line up in 5-3-2 and VfL Wolfsburg in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward VfL Wolfsburg having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors VfL Wolfsburg. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Union Berlin Analysis

Union Berlin approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 32 points from 29 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 33:50, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through I. Ansah (5 goals), Rani Khedira (5 goals), D. Doekhi (4 goals), with creative support from A. Ilic (7 assists), I. Ansah (2 assists), Derrick Köhn (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with M. Raab, R. Skov, D. Preu unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

VfL Wolfsburg Analysis

VfL Wolfsburg approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 21 points from 29 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 18 defeats with a 39:65 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Amoura (8 goals), Dženan Pejčinović (6 goals), C. Eriksen (3 goals), with creative support from C. Eriksen (6 assists), S. Kumbedi (5 assists), Maximilian Arnold (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with B. Dardai, Cleiton, K. Fischer unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Union Berlin won 5 times, VfL Wolfsburg won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:19 from Union Berlin's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Union Berlin 5-3-2 / VfL Wolfsburg 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Union Berlin 4, VfL Wolfsburg 9
H2H summary: Union Berlin wins 5, draws 3, VfL Wolfsburg wins 7

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation