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GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
02.05.2026 13:30
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Referee: Daniel Schlager, Germany
Union Berlin
Match Timeline
1. FC Köln
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Eric Martel
1. FC Köln
⚽
33'
M. Bulter · Assist: L. Waldschmidt
1. FC Köln
🟨
34'
Diogo Leite
Union Berlin
🟨
55'
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
1. FC Köln
🔄
58'
J. Juranovic ↔ C. Trimmel
Union Berlin
🔄
58'
I. Ansah ↔ A. Ilic
Union Berlin
🔄
58'
A. Schafer ↔ L. Burcu
Union Berlin
⚽
61'
S. El Mala · Assist: K. Lund
1. FC Köln
🔄
62'
L. Waldschmidt ↔ F. Chavez
1. FC Köln
🔄
67'
S. Nsoki ↔ T. Skarke
Union Berlin
🔄
71'
J. Kaminski ↔ L. Maina
1. FC Köln
🔄
71'
M. Bulter ↔ J. Thielmann
1. FC Köln
🔄
71'
S. El Mala ↔ Y. Niang
1. FC Köln
⚽
73'
T. Rothe · Assist: C. Trimmel
Union Berlin
🔄
80'
K. Lund ↔ J. Schmied
1. FC Köln
🟨
88'
Marvin Schwäbe
1. FC Köln
🔄
88'
R. Khedira ↔ A. Kral
Union Berlin
⚽
89'
L. Burcu
Union Berlin
🟨
90+5'
Livan Burcu
Union Berlin

Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 74.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
74.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
13.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Union Berlin Win 38.6%
Draw 36.3%
1. FC Köln Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Berlin1.36
1. FC Köln1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union Berlin Union Berlin
WWDLW
35 GF / 55 GA
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln
WLDWL
45 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
19
BTTS Yes
24
18
Over 2.5
19
3.61
Shots on Goal
4.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union Berlin Union Berlin 31 matches
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 31 matches
Union Berlin Statistic 1. FC Köln
8 Wins 7
8 Draws 10
15 Losses 14
35 Goals For 45
55 Goals Against 53
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
19 BTTS Yes 24
23 Over 1.5 26
18 Over 2.5 19
13 Over 3.5 13
6 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 4
3.61 Shots On Goal 4.65
12.19 Total Shots 13.55
5.03 Corners 4.55
39.1% Ball Possession 47.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward 1. FC Köln. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Union Berlin have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Union Berlin expected to line up in 3-5-2 and 1. FC Köln in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward 1. FC Köln having the stronger overall control.

Union Berlin Analysis

Union Berlin sit 13 with 32 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 35:55, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through D. Doekhi (5 goals), I. Ansah (5 goals), O. Burke (5 goals), with creative support from A. Ilic (8 assists), I. Ansah (2 assists), Derrick Köhn (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1. FC Köln Analysis

1. FC Köln sit 14 with 31 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 45:53, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through S. El Mala (11 goals), J. Kaminski (7 goals), R. Ache (7 goals), with creative support from S. El Mala (5 assists), R. Ache (4 assists), M. Bulter (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Union Berlin won 9 times, 1. FC Köln won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:14 from Union Berlin's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (74.9%)
Predicted formations: Union Berlin 3-5-2 / 1. FC Köln 4-4-2
H2H summary: Union Berlin wins 9, draws 3, 1. FC Köln wins 3

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation