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NORWAY › ELITESERIEN
25.05.2026 15:00
Romssa Arena
Referee: Espen Eskas, Norway
Tromso
Match Timeline
Aalesund
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
S. Innvaer · Assist: J. Hjerto-Dahl
Tromso
🟨
28'
Marcus Haagensen Reed
Aalesund
🟨
54'
Sander Innvær
Tromso
⚽
57'
M. Christensen
Aalesund
🔄
66'
T. Nyhammer ↔ L. O. Larsen
Tromso
🔄
66'
H. Larsen ↔ D. Braut
Tromso
🔄
67'
M. Reed ↔ I. Djantou
Aalesund
🔄
67'
M. Andresen ↔ K. Nesso
Aalesund
🔄
75'
H. Melland ↔ H. Hammer
Aalesund
🟨
82'
Ulrik Syversen
Aalesund
🔄
85'
J. Hjerto-Dahl ↔ S. Prestmo
Tromso
🔄
90+3'
E. Osenbroch ↔ E. Engqvist
Aalesund

Tromso vs Aalesund Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Tromso Win 82.4%
Draw 0%
Aalesund Win 17.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tromso1.58
Aalesund1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tromso Tromso
WWDLW
22 GF / 14 GA
Aalesund Aalesund
WLDWL
26 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.63
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.88
4
BTTS Yes
11
5
Over 2.5
10
5.18
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tromso Tromso 16 matches
Aalesund Aalesund 16 matches
Tromso Statistic Aalesund
10 Wins 5
4 Draws 3
2 Losses 8
22 Goals For 26
14 Goals Against 30
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88
4 BTTS Yes 11
11 Over 1.5 14
5 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
5.18 Shots On Goal 4.67
13.18 Total Shots 14.33
5.82 Corners 3.67
47.5% Ball Possession 43.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Tromso's more proactive style and Aalesund's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aalesund. Tromso arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 23 points compared to Aalesund in 15 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Tromso Analysis

Placed 2 with 23 points from 11 outings, Tromso continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 17:13 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Hjerto-Dahl (5 goals), H. Larsen (3 goals), A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd (2 goals), with creative support from R. Jenssen (5 assists), J. Hjerto-Dahl (1 assists), H. Larsen (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Aalesund Analysis

Aalesund approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 6 points from 8 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 10:16, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through K. Lonebu (5 goals), H. Melland (2 goals), Emil Engqvist (1 goals), with creative support from J. Orsahl (2 assists), H. Melland (1 assists), Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Tromso won 3 times, Aalesund won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:25 from Tromso's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 4.09 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Tromso 5-3-2 / Aalesund 5-3-2
Missing players: Tromso 3, Aalesund 6
H2H summary: Tromso wins 3, draws 3, Aalesund wins 5

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 17 2 3 56:20 36 53
W W W D W
2 22 17 2 3 56:20 36 53
W L W W W
3 22 11 6 5 41:30 11 39
D W L L D
4 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
5 22 10 4 8 40:31 9 34
D W W W L
6 21 10 2 9 28:29 -1 32
L W W L D
7 22 9 2 11 39:34 5 29
L W L L D
8 22 8 5 9 26:33 -7 29
D D D L W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 22 6 6 10 22:28 -6 24
D W L D D
12 21 6 5 10 34:43 -9 23
D L D L D
13 21 6 5 10 29:44 -15 23
L L L D L
14 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
15 22 5 4 13 22:43 -21 19
L L L W D
16 21 4 4 13 22:44 -22 16
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen