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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
22.04.2026 23:30
BMO Field
Referee: Fotis Bazakos, USA
Toronto FC
Match Timeline
Philadelphia Union
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Jonathan Osorio
Toronto FC
🟨
16'
Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
⚽
45'
M. Iloski · Assist: J. Lukic
Philadelphia Union
🟨
46'
Alonso Coello
Toronto FC
🟨
49'
Richie Laryea
Toronto FC
⚽
52'
D. Jean Jacques
Philadelphia Union
🔄
54'
D. Kerr ↔ M. Henry
Toronto FC
⚽
56'
J. Sargent · Assist: D. Salloi
Toronto FC
🟨
61'
Japhet Sery Larsen
Philadelphia Union
⚽
64'
K. Franklin · Assist: J. Cifuentes
Toronto FC
🟨
65'
Danley Jean Jacques
Philadelphia Union
🔄
65'
W. Zimmerman ↔ L. Stefanovic
Toronto FC
🔄
65'
I. Vassilev ↔ A. Bedoya
Philadelphia Union
🟨
78'
Olwethu Makhanya
Philadelphia Union
🔄
79'
B. Damiani ↔ E. Alladoh
Philadelphia Union
🔄
82'
M. Iloski ↔ C. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🔄
82'
J. Lukic ↔ M. Jakupovic
Philadelphia Union
⚽
89'
N. Harriel · Assist: A. Bedoya
Philadelphia Union
🟨
90+3'
Alejandro Bedoya
Philadelphia Union
⚽
90'
L. Gavran · Assist: A. Coello
Toronto FC

Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
94%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.1%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 68.2%
Draw 6.1%
Philadelphia Union Win 25.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.56
Philadelphia Union1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
23 GF / 19 GA
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WLDWL
28 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
9
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
10
5.5
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 13 matches
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 17 matches
Toronto FC Statistic Philadelphia Union
6 Wins 5
4 Draws 3
3 Losses 9
23 Goals For 28
19 Goals Against 21
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
9 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
5.5 Shots On Goal 4.25
12.13 Total Shots 14.33
6.25 Corners 6.75
45.4% Ball Possession 52.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Toronto FC appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Philadelphia Union. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Philadelphia Union. Toronto FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 12 points compared to Philadelphia Union in 13 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Philadelphia Union in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Philadelphia Union having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Philadelphia Union arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Toronto FC Analysis

So far, Toronto FC have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 12 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Salloi (3 goals), R. Laryea (2 goals), D. Etienne (1 goals), with creative support from D. Mihailovic (2 assists), D. Salloi (1 assists), R. Laryea (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with B. Kuscevic, T. Corbeanu, N. Gomis unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

Philadelphia Union sit 13 with 4 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 6:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Anello (1 goals), Danley Jean Jacques (1 goals), I. Vassilev (1 goals), with creative support from M. Iloski (1 assists), A. Bedoya (1 assists), C. Sullivan (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without A. Anello, Q. Sullivan, S. Olivas, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 5 times, Philadelphia Union won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:31 from Toronto FC's perspective. 13 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.9%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 3-4-2-1 / Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Missing players: Toronto FC 7, Philadelphia Union 3
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 5, draws 4, Philadelphia Union wins 6

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 19 6 3 59:22 37 63
W W W D L
2 28 13 10 5 68:50 18 49
W L D D D
3 28 14 6 8 51:40 11 48
W W W L L
4 28 14 4 10 45:39 6 46
L L W W W
5 28 13 7 8 50:40 10 46
W L W D W
6 28 12 6 10 56:45 11 42
W W W W W
7 28 11 4 13 51:66 -15 37
W L L W W
8 28 10 6 12 38:52 -14 36
W L W W L
9 27 9 9 9 58:65 -7 36
W L D D L
10 28 8 9 11 42:38 4 33
L D L W L
11 28 7 11 10 41:52 -11 32
W L L L W
12 27 6 12 9 34:46 -12 30
L D L D W
13 28 8 5 15 41:46 -5 29
L W W L L
14 28 7 6 15 33:48 -15 27
L D W D L
15 28 6 6 16 35:56 -21 24
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)