Toluca
Match Timeline
Necaxa
Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
1X2
Home or Draw
BTTS
Yes
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home or Draw |
70%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
78.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
66.7%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 46.8%
Draw 23.2%
Necaxa Win 30%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca1.71
Necaxa1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca
WWDLW
25 GF / 14 GA
Necaxa
WLDWL
13 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
2.27
Average Goals Scored
1.86
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
6
BTTS Yes
4
8
Over 2.5
4
7
Shots on Goal
7
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Toluca
11 matches
Necaxa
7 matches
| Toluca | Statistic | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 5 |
| 2 | Draws | 2 |
| 4 | Losses | 0 |
| 25 | Goals For | 13 |
| 14 | Goals Against | 6 |
| 2.27 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.86 |
| 1.27 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.86 |
| 6 | BTTS Yes | 4 |
| 10 | Over 1.5 | 4 |
| 8 | Over 2.5 | 4 |
| 5 | Over 3.5 | 1 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 1 | Failed To Score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots On Goal | 7 |
| 18 | Total Shots | 14.5 |
| 4.44 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 59.7% | Ball Possession | 64.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 10 times, Necaxa won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:16 from Toluca's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.
1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.8%)
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / Necaxa 5-3-2
H2H summary: Toluca wins 10, draws 3, Necaxa wins 2
Standings
Liga MX: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Toluca
Home
|
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23:12 | 11 | 20 |
D
L
W
W
W
|
| 2 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 20 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:10 | 7 | 18 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:8 | 5 | 17 |
W
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 5 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:11 | 3 | 17 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:17 | -1 | 17 |
W
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19:18 | 1 | 16 |
D
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16:14 | 2 | 13 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:11 | 4 | 12 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 12 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:18 | -4 | 12 |
W
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 14 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 11 |
W
D
L
D
D
|
|
| 15 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 10 |
W
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 16 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 10 |
W
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 17 |
Necaxa
Away
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:20 | -8 | 8 |
L
L
L
D
L
|
| 18 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7:25 | -18 | 3 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)