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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
10.09.2026 16:00
Jana Skredela stadions
Referee: A. Kenins
Super Nova
Match Timeline
Tukums
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
61'
K. Skadmanis ↔ A. Glaudans
Super Nova
🔄
61'
R. Kirss ↔ G. Bombans
Super Nova
🔄
62'
M. Derkach ↔ R. Melkis
Tukums
🔄
69'
Bamba ↔ N. Pathe
Super Nova
🔄
73'
D. Valmiers ↔ M. Stals
Tukums
⚽
77'
K. Romanovs
Super Nova
🔄
81'
Anmanis Kaspars ↔ K. Shigema
Tukums
🔄
81'
Leoni ↔ D. Radzenieks
Tukums

Super Nova vs Tukums Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.7%
Odds 2.26
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.78
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.7%
2.26 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.78 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.20 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Super Nova Win 67.7%
Draw 20.7%
Tukums Win 11.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Super Nova1.47
Tukums1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Super Nova Super Nova
WWDLW
34 GF / 46 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
48 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
2.03
19
BTTS Yes
27
16
Over 2.5
25
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Super Nova Super Nova 31 matches
Tukums Tukums 32 matches
Super Nova Statistic Tukums
10 Wins 5
6 Draws 10
15 Losses 17
34 Goals For 48
46 Goals Against 65
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 2.03
19 BTTS Yes 27
24 Over 1.5 31
16 Over 2.5 25
5 Over 3.5 14
7 Clean Sheets 1
7 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Tukums arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tukums. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Super Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Tukums in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tukums having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Super Nova Analysis

Super Nova sit 7 with 29 points after 26 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 13 losses, while the 27:38 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tukums Analysis

With 20 points from 28 games and a place of 9, Tukums still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 41:58, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Super Nova won 6 times, Tukums won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:23 from Super Nova's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (88.5%)
Predicted formations: Super Nova 4-2-3-1 / Tukums 5-3-2
H2H summary: Super Nova wins 6, draws 3, Tukums wins 6

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 5 2 71:22 49 74
D W D W D
2 31 22 7 2 86:30 56 73
W W D D L
3 31 18 7 6 49:30 19 61
D W D W D
4 31 12 7 12 41:43 -2 43
D D D W L
5 31 10 9 12 35:35 0 39
D L D L D
6 30 10 5 15 29:40 -11 35
L L W W D
7 31 8 8 15 32:49 -17 32
L D L W W
8 31 5 11 15 21:52 -31 26
D D L W L
9 31 5 9 17 44:61 -17 24
D L W L L
10 31 4 6 21 30:76 -46 18
W L D L L