LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Jana Skredela stadions
Referee: A. Kenins
Super Nova
Match Timeline
FK Liepaja
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
V. Lizunovs
Super Nova
🟨
25'
Talisca
FK Liepaja
🟨
28'
Bamba
Super Nova
🔄
28'
E. Rodolphe ↔ I. Mushindi
FK Liepaja
🟨
29'
Talisca
FK Liepaja
🟥
29'
Talisca
FK Liepaja
🔄
35'
I. Mushindi ↔ A. Korobenko
FK Liepaja
45+2'
J. Cirulis · Assist: I. Patrikejevs
Super Nova
🔄
46'
D. Gueye ↔ A. Ogunniyi
FK Liepaja
59'
D. Patijcuks · Assist: E. Oloko
FK Liepaja
🔄
68'
Bamba ↔ R. Kirss
Super Nova
🔄
73'
A. Glaudans ↔ M. Tihonovics
Super Nova
🔄
84'
D. Patijcuks ↔ K. Iljins
FK Liepaja
🔄
84'
A. Haidara ↔ A. Leite
FK Liepaja
87'
A. Ogunniyi · Assist: E. Oloko
FK Liepaja

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.4%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Super Nova Win 27.4%
Draw 15.2%
FK Liepaja Win 57.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Super Nova1.32
FK Liepaja1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Super Nova Super Nova
WWDLW
31 GF / 43 GA
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WLDWL
52 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
17
BTTS Yes
21
15
Over 2.5
22
0
Shots on Goal
1.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Super Nova Super Nova 27 matches
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 36 matches
Super Nova Statistic FK Liepaja
9 Wins 15
4 Draws 5
14 Losses 16
31 Goals For 52
43 Goals Against 57
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
17 BTTS Yes 21
22 Over 1.5 30
15 Over 2.5 22
5 Over 3.5 12
5 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 1.5
0 Total Shots 6
0 Corners 2.25
0% Ball Possession 20.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FK Liepaja. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Super Nova Analysis

With 27 points from 23 games and a place of 6, Super Nova still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 12 defeats with a 25:35 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FK Liepaja Analysis

FK Liepaja sit 5 with 31 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 30:34 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Super Nova won 2 times, FK Liepaja won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:38 from Super Nova's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.8%)
Predicted formations: Super Nova 4-2-3-1 / FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Super Nova wins 2, draws 2, FK Liepaja wins 11
Last matches: Super Nova
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
01.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
Last matches: FK Liepaja
02.08.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
1
2
L
30.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
1
3
L
26.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
15.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
2
1
W
09.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
30.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
0
W
26.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
21.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
4
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
12.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
W
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
17.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
28.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
H2H: Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
09.08.26
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
12.06.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
L
23.04.26
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
09.11.25
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
3
0
W
25.08.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
0
3
W
17.06.25
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
25.04.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
2
D
11.11.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
0
L
28.08.23
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
0
2
L
09.06.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
L
28.04.23
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
2
6
L
29.01.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
8
1
L
11.09.22
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
27.06.22
H2H
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
0
L
02.05.22
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
Last matches: Super Nova
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
15.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
H2H at home: Super Nova
09.08.26
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
23.04.26
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
09.11.25
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
3
0
W
17.06.25
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
28.08.23
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
0
2
L
28.04.23
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
2
6
L
11.09.22
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
02.05.22
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
Last matches: FK Liepaja
02.08.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
1
2
L
30.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
1
3
L
26.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
15.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
2
1
W
04.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
4
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
23.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
17.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
2
2
D
03.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
0
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
1
0
W
03.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
AIK Stockholm
3
1
W
H2H away: FK Liepaja
09.08.26
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
W
23.04.26
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
W
09.11.25
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
3
0
L
17.06.25
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
3
W
28.08.23
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
0
2
W
28.04.23
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
2
6
W
11.09.22
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
02.05.22
H2H
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
3
W

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 21 2 2 62:17 45 65
W W W D W
2 25 20 4 1 76:21 55 64
W W W W W
3 24 14 4 6 39:26 13 46
W W D L D
4 26 10 6 10 33:31 2 36
W W L W W
5 25 10 4 11 33:37 -4 34
W L W L W
6 24 8 3 13 26:37 -11 27
L W L W L
7 26 6 7 13 25:44 -19 25
L L L L L
8 26 4 9 13 18:47 -29 21
L L D L W
9 26 4 8 14 40:51 -11 20
L W L L L
10 25 3 5 17 24:65 -41 14
L D L W L