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CHINA › SUPER LEAGUE
09.10.2026 11:35
Shenzhen Stadium

Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 69.1%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.61
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
69.1%
1.67 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.50 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.61 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.18 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sichuan Jiuniu Win 42.7%
Draw 26.4%
Henan Jianye Win 30.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sichuan Jiuniu1.33
Henan Jianye1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sichuan Jiuniu Sichuan Jiuniu
WWDLW
34 GF / 45 GA
Henan Jianye Henan Jianye
WLDWL
33 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
14
BTTS Yes
16
13
Over 2.5
14
4.23
Shots on Goal
4.15

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sichuan Jiuniu Sichuan Jiuniu 26 matches
Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 26 matches
Sichuan Jiuniu Statistic Henan Jianye
8 Wins 8
4 Draws 9
14 Losses 9
34 Goals For 33
45 Goals Against 35
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
14 BTTS Yes 16
20 Over 1.5 20
13 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 8
4.23 Shots On Goal 4.15
12.31 Total Shots 12.81
4.92 Corners 5.73
45.5% Ball Possession 52.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Henan Jianye. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sichuan Jiuniu expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Henan Jianye in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Henan Jianye having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Sichuan Jiuniu Analysis

Sichuan Jiuniu are currently 11 in the standings with 28 points from 26 matches. The record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 34:45 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Wesley Moraes (10 goals), E. Kartsev (4 goals), A. Ademi (3 goals), with creative support from Wesley Moraes (5 assists), Dai Wai-tsun (3 assists), Deabeas Owusu-Sekyere (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Henan Jianye Analysis

So far, Henan Jianye have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 27 points from 26 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses, while the 33:35 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on Gustavo (12 goals), Bruno Nazário (7 goals), Yihao Zhong (3 goals), with creative support from Bruno Nazário (5 assists), Shangyuan Wang (4 assists), Gustavo (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Sichuan Jiuniu won 1 times, Henan Jianye won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:9 from Sichuan Jiuniu's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (73.6%)
Predicted formations: Sichuan Jiuniu 4-1-4-1 / Henan Jianye 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sichuan Jiuniu wins 1, draws 3, Henan Jianye wins 3

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 7 4 51:30 21 52
D W L W L
2 26 12 4 10 38:42 -4 40
W D W D L
3 26 11 10 5 49:33 16 38
D D D W W
4 26 11 5 10 54:51 3 38
W L D W W
5 26 8 14 4 31:32 -1 38
D D W D D
6 26 13 4 9 46:43 3 37
D W L W W
7 26 10 8 8 40:33 7 33
D W W D W
8 26 12 5 9 52:46 6 31
W L W L W
9 26 7 10 9 27:32 -5 31
L D L D L
10 26 10 6 10 45:43 2 31
W L W D L
11 26 8 4 14 34:45 -11 28
D L D W L
12 26 8 9 9 33:35 -2 27
D D D D L
13 26 7 4 15 34:47 -13 25
L L L D L
14 26 9 8 9 36:32 4 25
W W D D L
15 26 5 11 10 39:46 -7 21
L D D W D
16 26 6 3 17 34:53 -19 14
L L L L L
AFC Champions League Elite League Stage
AFC Champions League 2 Group Stage
Relegation