AUSTRALIA VICTORIA NPL
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City Vista Recreation Reserve

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.3%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sunshine Georgies Win 38.1%
Draw 3.6%
South Melbourne Win 58.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sunshine Georgies1.38
South Melbourne1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sunshine Georgies Sunshine Georgies
WWDLW
34 GF / 34 GA
South Melbourne South Melbourne
WLDWL
39 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
15
BTTS Yes
10
12
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sunshine Georgies Sunshine Georgies 25 matches
South Melbourne South Melbourne 25 matches
Sunshine Georgies Statistic South Melbourne
8 Wins 13
11 Draws 2
6 Losses 10
34 Goals For 39
34 Goals Against 35
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
15 BTTS Yes 10
19 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward South Melbourne. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward South Melbourne having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. South Melbourne look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Sunshine Georgies Analysis

Sunshine Georgies are currently 6 in the standings with 35 points from 24 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 32:31 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

South Melbourne Analysis

South Melbourne approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 41 points after 24 outings. With 13 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats plus a goal balance of 38:33, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Sunshine Georgies won 1 times, South Melbourne won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:0 from Sunshine Georgies's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
H2H summary: Sunshine Georgies wins 1, draws 0, South Melbourne wins 0
Last matches: Sunshine Georgies
22.08.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Hume City
2
3
L
15.08.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Avondale
3
2
W
01.08.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Altona Magic
1
1
D
24.07.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Heidelberg United
0
0
D
18.07.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Melbourne City II
1
0
W
12.07.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
St. Albans Saints
2
2
D
04.07.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Oakleigh Cannons
1
1
D
27.06.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Preston Lions
0
2
L
20.06.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Dandenong City
3
2
W
06.06.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Dandenong Thunder
3
2
W
30.05.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Green Gully
0
0
D
22.05.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Bentleigh Greens
0
0
D
18.05.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
South Melbourne
4
0
W
09.05.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Hume City
2
4
L
02.05.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Avondale
2
5
L
25.04.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Altona Magic
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Heidelberg United
0
3
L
12.04.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Melbourne City II
1
1
D
28.03.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
St. Albans Saints
2
1
W
20.03.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Oakleigh Cannons
1
2
L
Last matches: South Melbourne
23.08.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
1
2
L
15.08.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Melbourne City II
3
0
W
02.08.26
Vic
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
2
0
W
24.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Oakleigh Cannons
2
1
W
18.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Preston Lions
0
0
D
10.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
2
0
W
05.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong Thunder
1
0
W
28.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Green Gully
1
2
L
19.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Bentleigh Greens
5
1
W
07.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Altona Magic
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Hume City
1
1
D
25.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Avondale
0
4
L
18.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Sunshine Georgies
0
4
L
08.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
4
L
01.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Melbourne City II
1
2
L
24.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
4
0
W
19.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Oakleigh Cannons
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Preston Lions
3
0
W
31.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
4
2
W
21.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong Thunder
0
3
L
H2H: Sunshine Georgies vs South Melbourne
18.05.26
H2H
South Melbourne
Sunshine Georgies
0
4
W
Last matches: Sunshine Georgies
15.08.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Avondale
3
2
W
18.07.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Melbourne City II
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Oakleigh Cannons
1
1
D
27.06.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Preston Lions
0
2
L
20.06.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Dandenong City
3
2
W
30.05.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Green Gully
0
0
D
09.05.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Hume City
2
4
L
25.04.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Altona Magic
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Heidelberg United
0
3
L
28.03.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
St. Albans Saints
2
1
W
28.02.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Dandenong Thunder
2
1
W
14.02.26
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Bentleigh Greens
0
0
D
24.08.25
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Western United II
8
0
W
02.08.25
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Eastern Lions
4
1
W
19.07.25
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Moreland City
6
2
W
28.06.25
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Bentleigh Greens
0
1
L
21.06.25
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Manningham United Blues
6
1
W
14.06.25
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Brunswick City
0
1
L
31.05.25
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
Bulleen Lions
4
0
W
24.05.25
Vic
Sunshine Georgies
North Sunshine Eagles
4
0
W
Last matches: South Melbourne
15.08.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Melbourne City II
3
0
W
24.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Oakleigh Cannons
2
1
W
10.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
2
0
W
19.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Bentleigh Greens
5
1
W
30.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Hume City
1
1
D
08.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
4
L
24.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
4
0
W
11.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Preston Lions
3
0
W
21.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong Thunder
0
3
L
13.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Green Gully
1
0
W
28.02.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Altona Magic
2
1
W
14.02.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Avondale
2
0
W
14.11.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Moreton City Excelsior
3
3
D
01.11.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Sydney Olympic
2
1
W
26.10.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Broadmeadow Magic
1
0
W
23.08.25
Vic
South Melbourne
Oakleigh Cannons
0
3
L
26.07.25
Vic
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
1
1
D
04.07.25
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
3
3
D
06.06.25
Vic
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
2
2
D
23.05.25
Vic
South Melbourne
Melbourne Knights
2
0
W

Standings

Victoria NPL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 54:21 33 54
W W D L W
2 25 15 5 5 40:18 22 50
D W W D W
3 25 15 4 6 51:34 17 49
W W W L L
4 25 14 2 9 63:34 29 44
W L W W D
5 25 13 2 10 39:35 4 41
L W W W D
6 25 10 7 8 40:34 6 37
W L L D D
7 25 8 11 6 34:34 0 35
L W D D W
8 25 9 7 9 32:29 3 34
D W W D L
9 25 8 7 10 30:43 -13 31
W D L W D
10 25 8 6 11 41:40 1 30
L L L L L
11 25 7 6 12 27:41 -14 27
L L D W D
12 25 6 6 13 27:49 -22 24
W D D L W
13 25 3 6 16 21:51 -30 15
L L D D W
14 25 4 3 18 23:59 -36 15
L L L L L