CROATIA › HNL
10.10.2026 13:00
Stadion Poljud

HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
HNK Hajduk Split Win 65.2%
Draw 9.4%
Dinamo Zagreb Win 25.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
HNK Hajduk Split1.8
Dinamo Zagreb1.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
WWDLW
49 GF / 19 GA
Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb
WLDWL
48 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
2.23
Average Goals Scored
2.53
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
8
BTTS Yes
11
14
Over 2.5
14
4.63
Shots on Goal
5.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split 22 matches
Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 19 matches
HNK Hajduk Split Statistic Dinamo Zagreb
16 Wins 11
2 Draws 5
4 Losses 3
49 Goals For 48
19 Goals Against 22
2.23 Avg Goals Scored 2.53
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
8 BTTS Yes 11
19 Over 1.5 16
14 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 11
12 Clean Sheets 8
2 Failed To Score 2
4.63 Shots On Goal 5.5
9.06 Total Shots 17.29
4.25 Corners 6.5
46.4% Ball Possession 54.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. HNK Hajduk Split come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HNK Hajduk Split expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Dinamo Zagreb in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dinamo Zagreb having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Dinamo Zagreb. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

HNK Hajduk Split Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 16 points from 8 games, HNK Hajduk Split bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 16:8, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Michele Šego (4 goals), M. Livaja (3 goals), Marin Šotiček (2 goals), with creative support from Dalisson de Almeida (3 assists), Šimun Hrgović (2 assists), Adrion Pajaziti (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Dinamo Zagreb Analysis

Dinamo Zagreb come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 16 points after 7 matches. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 17:9, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Dion Drena Beljo (7 goals), Niko Galešić (1 goals), Arber Hoxha (1 goals), with creative support from Stjepan Radeljić (2 assists), Luka Stojković (2 assists), Matteo Pérez Vinlöf (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HNK Hajduk Split won 4 times, Dinamo Zagreb won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:17 from HNK Hajduk Split's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1 / Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
H2H summary: HNK Hajduk Split wins 4, draws 4, Dinamo Zagreb wins 7

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 17:9 8 16
W L W D W
2 8 5 1 2 16:8 8 16
L W W W W
3 8 5 1 2 17:11 6 16
D W L W L
4 8 4 3 1 13:7 6 15
D D D W L
5 7 4 2 1 13:7 6 14
W D W D W
6 8 2 3 3 14:13 1 9
L W D D L
7 8 2 1 5 11:16 -5 7
L D L L L
8 8 2 1 5 7:16 -9 7
D L W L W
9 8 1 2 5 5:12 -7 5
W D L D L
10 8 1 1 6 10:24 -14 4
D L L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL