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AUSTRIA › BUNDESLIGA
13.09.2026 15:00
Merkur-Arena
Referee: Sebastian Gishamer, Austria
Sturm Graz
Match Timeline
Lask Linz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
Jurgen Heil
Sturm Graz
VAR
13'
George Bello
Lask Linz
⚽
34'
G. Mamageishvili · Assist: S. Seidl
Sturm Graz
🟨
45+3'
Krystof Daněk
Lask Linz
⚽
45'
K. Danek
Lask Linz
🔄
50'
S. Jatta ↔ O. Diakite
Sturm Graz
⚽
59'
O. Diakite · Assist: A. Malic
Sturm Graz
🔄
60'
K. Danek ↔ R. Ljubicic
Lask Linz
🔄
60'
C. Lang ↔ S. Kalajdzic
Lask Linz
🔄
61'
G. Mamageishvili ↔ O. Kiteishvili
Sturm Graz
🔄
61'
S. Seidl ↔ F. Rozga
Sturm Graz
🟨
76'
Melayro Bogarde
Lask Linz
🔄
77'
J. Gorenc Stankovic ↔ L. Weinhandl
Sturm Graz
🔄
77'
M. Bogarde ↔ A. Schopf
Lask Linz
🔄
82'
K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen ↔ F. Flecker
Lask Linz
🟨
85'
Filip Rózga
Sturm Graz
🟨
85'
Otar Kiteishvili
Sturm Graz
🟨
85'
Sascha Horvath
Lask Linz
⚽
90+7'
Otar Kiteishvili
Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds 1.95
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.51
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.9%
1.95 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.44 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.51 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sturm Graz Win 34.4%
Draw 10.7%
Lask Linz Win 54.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sturm Graz1.69
Lask Linz2.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
WWDLW
45 GF / 26 GA
Lask Linz Lask Linz
WLDWL
60 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
2.25
Average Goals Scored
2.86
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
11
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
16
4.44
Shots on Goal
7.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 20 matches
Lask Linz Lask Linz 21 matches
Sturm Graz Statistic Lask Linz
10 Wins 15
6 Draws 0
4 Losses 6
45 Goals For 60
26 Goals Against 18
2.25 Avg Goals Scored 2.86
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
11 BTTS Yes 8
17 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 16
10 Over 3.5 8
7 Clean Sheets 9
2 Failed To Score 4
4.44 Shots On Goal 7.5
16.11 Total Shots 22
6.22 Corners 7.13
46.7% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lask Linz. Lask Linz look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sturm Graz expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Lask Linz in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lask Linz having the stronger overall control. Lask Linz carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 15 points while Sturm Graz sit 4 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sturm Graz Analysis

Sturm Graz arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 8 points after 5 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 6:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Seedy Jatta (2 goals), Nelson Weiper (2 goals), Szymon Włodarczyk (1 goals), with creative support from Simon Seidl (3 assists), Emran Soglo (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Lask Linz Analysis

Lask Linz approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 15 points after 5 outings. With 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 15:2, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by C. Lang (4 goals), Samuel Adeniran (4 goals), M. Usor (1 goals), with creative support from M. Usor (2 assists), M. Bogarde (2 assists), A. Andrade (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sturm Graz won 7 times, Lask Linz won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:17 from Sturm Graz's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Sturm Graz 4-4-2 / Lask Linz 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Sturm Graz wins 7, draws 4, Lask Linz wins 4

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 0 1 21:7 14 18
W W L W W
2 7 5 2 0 18:4 14 17
W D W W W
3 7 5 1 1 19:7 12 16
D L W W W
4 7 3 2 2 8:9 -1 11
L W L D W
5 7 2 2 3 11:12 -1 8
W D L W L
6 7 2 2 3 10:13 -3 8
D D W W L
7 7 2 2 3 9:12 -3 8
L D W W L
8 7 2 2 3 8:11 -3 8
W L L D W
9 7 2 2 3 6:16 -10 8
D W D L L
10 7 2 1 4 7:13 -6 7
D W L L W
11 7 1 2 4 7:13 -6 5
L L L D L
12 7 1 0 6 5:12 -7 3
L L L L L
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Bundesliga (Relegation Group)