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SCOTLAND › PREMIERSHIP
19.09.2026 14:00
The SMiSA Stadium
ST Mirren
Match Timeline
Dundee Utd
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
J. Randall · Assist: D. Bennie
Dundee Utd
⚽
12'
L. Cameron · Assist: I. Metsoko
Dundee Utd
VAR
20'
Killian Phillips
ST Mirren
VAR
42'
Daniel Bennie
Dundee Utd
🟨
43'
Daniel Bennie
Dundee Utd
⚽
45'
K. Ciubotaru · Assist: J. Randall
Dundee Utd
🔄
46'
F. Taylor ↔ J. Young
ST Mirren
🔄
66'
K. Phillips ↔ C. R. Mochrie
ST Mirren
🟨
70'
Jake Young
ST Mirren
🔄
73'
D. Bennie ↔ W. Ferry
Dundee Utd
🔄
73'
I. Metsoko ↔ L. Rose
Dundee Utd
🔄
77'
E. Sule ↔ L. Thomas
ST Mirren
🔄
77'
I. Kabia ↔ J. Farquhar
ST Mirren
🔄
78'
L. Cameron ↔ A. Yoro
Dundee Utd
🔄
78'
J. Randall ↔ N. Farrugia
Dundee Utd
🟨
80'
William Ferry
Dundee Utd
🔄
83'
Z. Iqbal ↔ P. Camara
Dundee Utd
🟨
90+2'
Ryan Carr
ST Mirren

ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.4%
Odds 2.34
BTTS
Yes
Probability 66.8%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.62
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.4%
2.34 ▥
BTTS Yes
66.8%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.62 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
ST Mirren Win 62.4%
Draw 10.4%
Dundee Utd Win 27.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
ST Mirren1.83
Dundee Utd1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
ST Mirren ST Mirren
WWDLW
12 GF / 8 GA
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd
WLDWL
8 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
2
3
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
4
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ST Mirren ST Mirren 7 matches
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 7 matches
ST Mirren Statistic Dundee Utd
4 Wins 1
1 Draws 2
2 Losses 4
12 Goals For 8
8 Goals Against 14
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 2
3 BTTS Yes 3
4 Over 1.5 7
3 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 3
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.33
15 Total Shots 16.33
4.67 Corners 5.83
46.3% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by ST Mirren's more proactive style and Dundee Utd's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Dundee Utd. Dundee Utd arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with ST Mirren expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Dundee Utd in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dundee Utd having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. ST Mirren arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 10 points compared to Dundee Utd in 9 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

ST Mirren Analysis

Placed 4 with 10 points from 6 outings, ST Mirren continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 8:6 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Killian Phillips (3 goals), Samuel Ramos (1 goals), N. Agrafiotis (1 goals), with creative support from Samuel Ramos (2 assists), N. Agrafiotis (1 assists), A. Gogić (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Dundee Utd Analysis

With 5 points from 6 games and a place of 9, Dundee Utd still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 6:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on W. Ferry (1 goals), J. Randall (1 goals), M. Forbes (1 goals), with creative support from M. Merghem (2 assists), W. Ferry (1 assists), J. Randall (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, ST Mirren won 5 times, Dundee Utd won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:16 from ST Mirren's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: ST Mirren 4-2-3-1 / Dundee Utd 4-3-3
H2H summary: ST Mirren wins 5, draws 2, Dundee Utd wins 7

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 0 1 14:4 10 18
L W W W W
2 7 5 1 1 8:4 4 16
W W W W W
3 7 4 1 2 14:8 6 13
D L W W W
4 7 3 1 3 9:7 2 10
W L D L W
5 7 3 1 3 8:9 -1 10
L L L W D
6 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D L W D L
7 7 2 2 3 7:8 -1 8
D W D L L
8 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
W D L W L
9 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
L L L W D
10 7 2 1 4 8:11 -3 7
D L L L W
11 7 1 3 3 6:9 -3 6
D W D L L
12 7 1 2 4 6:15 -9 5
D W D L L
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Premiership (Relegation Group)