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SCOTLAND › PREMIERSHIP
19.09.2026 14:00
McDiarmid Park
ST Johnstone
Match Timeline
Falkirk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45'
Cheick Diabate
ST Johnstone
🟨
53'
Cheick Diabate
ST Johnstone
🟥
53'
Cheick Diabate
ST Johnstone
🔄
55'
J. Campbell ↔ D. Finlayson
ST Johnstone
⚽
60'
E. Ross · Assist: O. Eames
Falkirk
🔄
65'
J. Holt ↔ S. Stanton
ST Johnstone
🔄
65'
R. McAlear ↔ R. Paton
ST Johnstone
🔄
67'
F. Barbrook ↔ C. Sibbald
Falkirk
🔄
67'
J. Murrell ↔ R. MacIver
Falkirk
🔄
75'
E. Ross ↔ C. Fodrey
Falkirk
🔄
75'
O. Eames ↔ A. Doherty
Falkirk
🔄
77'
Z. Mitchell ↔ D. Schmidt
ST Johnstone
🔄
89'
B. Krauhaus ↔ J. McMillan
Falkirk
🟨
90+2'
Enes Alić
ST Johnstone
🟨
90'
Ruari Paton
ST Johnstone
⚽
90'
E. Alic
ST Johnstone

ST Johnstone vs Falkirk Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 71.1%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.01
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
71.1%
1.28 ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.01 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.6%
1.28 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
ST Johnstone Win 52.1%
Draw 19%
Falkirk Win 28.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
ST Johnstone1.72
Falkirk1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
ST Johnstone ST Johnstone
WWDLW
19 GF / 11 GA
Falkirk Falkirk
WLDWL
8 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
2.11
Average Goals Scored
1
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
5
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
4
3.5
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ST Johnstone ST Johnstone 9 matches
Falkirk Falkirk 8 matches
ST Johnstone Statistic Falkirk
5 Wins 3
1 Draws 2
3 Losses 3
19 Goals For 8
11 Goals Against 9
2.11 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
5 BTTS Yes 5
7 Over 1.5 6
6 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 0
2 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 2
3.5 Shots On Goal 2.67
11 Total Shots 10.33
3.5 Corners 4.17
50.2% Ball Possession 45.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Falkirk. ST Johnstone arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 7 points compared to Falkirk in 11 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with ST Johnstone expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Falkirk in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Falkirk having the stronger overall control.

ST Johnstone Analysis

With 7 points from 6 games and a place of 7, ST Johnstone still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 8:9, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Fowler (4 goals), C. Diabate (1 goals), R. Paton (1 goals), with creative support from J. Gullan (2 assists), J. Fowler (1 assists), S. Stanton (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Falkirk Analysis

Falkirk approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 2 points from 5 matches. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 3:7, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Murrell (1 goals), with creative support from R. Strain (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, ST Johnstone won 1 times, Falkirk won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from ST Johnstone's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81%)
Predicted formations: ST Johnstone 4-4-2 / Falkirk 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: ST Johnstone wins 1, draws 0, Falkirk wins 1

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 0 1 14:4 10 18
L W W W W
2 7 5 1 1 8:4 4 16
W W W W W
3 7 4 1 2 14:8 6 13
D L W W W
4 7 3 1 3 9:7 2 10
W L D L W
5 7 3 1 3 8:9 -1 10
L L L W D
6 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D L W D L
7 7 2 2 3 7:8 -1 8
D W D L L
8 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
W D L W L
9 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
L L L W D
10 7 2 1 4 8:11 -3 7
D L L L W
11 7 1 3 3 6:9 -3 6
D W D L L
12 7 1 2 4 6:15 -9 5
D W D L L
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Premiership (Relegation Group)