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24.05.2026 16:30
El Molinón
Referee: D. Arcediano
Sporting Gijon
Match Timeline
Almeria
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
J. Otero · Assist: A. Corredera
Sporting Gijon
🟨
20'
Daijiro Chirino
Almeria
⚽
21'
J. Otero · Assist: C. Gelabert Pina
Sporting Gijon
🟨
34'
Nélson Monte
Almeria
🔄
46'
J. Morcillo ↔ Leo Baptistao
Almeria
🔄
46'
D. Lopy ↔ A. Horta
Almeria
🔄
46'
N. Monte ↔ A. Centelles
Almeria
🔄
56'
↔ N. Melamed
Almeria
⚽
56'
M. de la Fuente · Assist: D. Chirino
Almeria
🟨
58'
Álex Corredera
Sporting Gijon
🔄
61'
A. Cuenca ↔ D. Sanchez
Sporting Gijon
🟨
72'
Miguel de la Fuente
Almeria
🔄
73'
C. Gelabert Pina ↔ J. Dubasin
Sporting Gijon
🟨
74'
Rodrigo Ely
Almeria
🟨
75'
Pablo Vázquez
Sporting Gijon
🔄
80'
D. Chirino ↔ A. Puigmal
Almeria
⚽
82'
P. Vazquez · Assist: A. Corredera
Sporting Gijon
🔄
85'
A. Corredera ↔ P. Garcia
Sporting Gijon
🔄
85'
P. Vazquez ↔ E. Curbelo
Sporting Gijon
🔄
85'
J. Otero ↔ J. Bernal
Sporting Gijon
🟨
87'
Guille Rosas
Sporting Gijon
🟨
89'
Nicolás Melamed
Almeria
🟨
90'
Diego Sánchez
Sporting Gijon

Sporting Gijon vs Almeria Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
100%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
93.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sporting Gijon Win 49%
Draw 0%
Almeria Win 51%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Gijon1.4
Almeria1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon
WWDLW
58 GF / 54 GA
Almeria Almeria
WLDWL
82 GF / 62 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.95
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
23
BTTS Yes
30
21
Over 2.5
30
4.26
Shots on Goal
5.49

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 43 matches
Almeria Almeria 42 matches
Sporting Gijon Statistic Almeria
18 Wins 22
7 Draws 8
18 Losses 12
58 Goals For 82
54 Goals Against 62
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.95
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
23 BTTS Yes 30
28 Over 1.5 36
21 Over 2.5 30
12 Over 3.5 17
13 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 5
4.26 Shots On Goal 5.49
11.02 Total Shots 15.05
4.52 Corners 4.73
44.5% Ball Possession 51.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Almeria. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sporting Gijon have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Almeria carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 71 points while Sporting Gijon sit 12 on 55, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Sporting Gijon Analysis

Sporting Gijon sit 12 with 55 points after 40 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 16 wins, 7 draws, and 17 defeats with a 55:52 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Dubasin (16 goals), J. Otero (13 goals), C. Gelabert Pina (8 goals), with creative support from J. Otero (12 assists), G. Rosas (7 assists), J. Dubasin (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points to a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Almeria Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 71 points from 40 games, Almeria bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 21 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats plus a goal balance of 79:60, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by S. Arribas (24 goals), A. Embarba (15 goals), Leo Baptistao (9 goals), with creative support from A. Embarba (9 assists), S. Arribas (7 assists), A. Munoz (6 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Gijon won 7 times, Almeria won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:15 from Sporting Gijon's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Gijon 4-2-3-1 / Almeria 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sporting Gijon wins 7, draws 2, Almeria wins 6

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
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