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BRAZIL › SERIE B
10.07.2026 23:00
Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Referee: M. Lima Barbosa
Sport Recife
Match Timeline
Botafogo SP
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
25'
Ze Hugo · Assist: Everton Morelli
Botafogo SP
🟨
27'
Rafael Gava
Botafogo SP
🟨
38'
Zé Lucas
Sport Recife
VAR
40'
Patrick Brey
Botafogo SP
⚽
42'
Rafael Gava
Botafogo SP
🟨
45+4'
Matheus Sales
Botafogo SP
🔄
46'
Marlon Douglas ↔ Clayson
Sport Recife
🔄
46'
Ze Lucas ↔ Ze Gabriel
Sport Recife
🔄
46'
Madson ↔ Augusto
Sport Recife
⚽
47'
Chrystian Barletta
Sport Recife
🟨
54'
Habraão
Sport Recife
⚽
64'
Benevenuto · Assist: Clayson
Sport Recife
🔄
65'
Fabio Matheus ↔ Yago Felipe
Sport Recife
🔄
69'
Matheus Sales ↔ Leandro Maciel
Botafogo SP
🔄
69'
Kelvin ↔ Felipe Vieira
Botafogo SP
🔄
70'
Hygor ↔ Guilherme Queiroz
Botafogo SP
🟨
73'
Felipe Vieira
Botafogo SP
⚽
76'
Patrick Brey · Assist: Rafael Gava
Botafogo SP
🔄
79'
Rafael Gava ↔ Wallace
Botafogo SP
🔄
82'
Biel Fonseca ↔ Ze Roberto
Sport Recife
🔄
89'
Ze Hugo ↔ Wesley Santos
Botafogo SP
🟥
90+9'
Clayson
Sport Recife
VAR
90+3'
Zé Roberto
Sport Recife
🟨
90+4'
Leandro Maciel
Botafogo SP
⚽
90'
Chrystian Barletta
Sport Recife

Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.8%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.8%
- ▥
BTTS No
55%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sport Recife Win 70.8%
Draw 5.8%
Botafogo SP Win 23.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sport Recife1.05
Botafogo SP0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WWDLW
18 GF / 12 GA
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WLDWL
17 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.06
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
8
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
6
4.19
Shots on Goal
3.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sport Recife Sport Recife 16 matches
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 16 matches
Sport Recife Statistic Botafogo SP
6 Wins 5
7 Draws 4
3 Losses 7
18 Goals For 17
12 Goals Against 15
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
8 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 9
5 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 6
4.19 Shots On Goal 3.63
13.44 Total Shots 11.75
4.94 Corners 6.31
53.6% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Sport Recife's more proactive style and Botafogo SP's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sport Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Botafogo SP in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Botafogo SP having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Sport Recife arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 25 points compared to Botafogo SP in 16 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Botafogo SP. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Sport Recife Analysis

So far, Sport Recife have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 25 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, while the 18:11 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Chrystian Barletta (5 goals), Perotti (4 goals), Carlos De Pena (1 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (3 assists), Carlos De Pena (2 assists), Marlon (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Botafogo SP Analysis

With 16 points from 15 games and a place of 16, Botafogo SP still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats with a 14:14 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Everton Morelli (6 goals), Hygor (2 goals), Vilar (1 goals), with creative support from Patrick Brey (3 assists), Rafael Gava (3 assists), Everton Morelli (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Sport Recife won 4 times, Botafogo SP won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:6 from Sport Recife's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Sport Recife 4-2-3-1 / Botafogo SP 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Sport Recife wins 4, draws 3, Botafogo SP wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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