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BRAZIL › SERIE B
13.10.2026 00:00
Estadio Santa Cruz

Botafogo SP vs Ceara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
73.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Botafogo SP Win 26.2%
Draw 30.2%
Ceara Win 43.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo SP1.16
Ceara1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
WWDLW
34 GF / 37 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
34 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
16
BTTS Yes
17
13
Over 2.5
12
3.39
Shots on Goal
4.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 31 matches
Ceara Ceara 31 matches
Botafogo SP Statistic Ceara
9 Wins 10
8 Draws 9
14 Losses 12
34 Goals For 34
37 Goals Against 39
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
16 BTTS Yes 17
19 Over 1.5 23
13 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 10
3.39 Shots On Goal 4.23
12.13 Total Shots 13.58
6.1 Corners 5.61
47.3% Ball Possession 50.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Botafogo SP have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo SP expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Ceara in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ceara having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ceara.

Botafogo SP Analysis

Botafogo SP sit 16 with 35 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 14 defeats with a 34:37 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Everton Morelli (7 goals), Hygor (4 goals), Vilar (2 goals), with creative support from Rafael Gava (5 assists), Patrick Brey (3 assists), Kelvin (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 39 points from 31 matches. Their record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 34:39, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Lucas Lima (4 goals), Melk (4 goals), Richard (4 goals), with creative support from Lucas Lima (3 assists), Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo SP won 1 times, Ceara won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:13 from Botafogo SP's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (73.9%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo SP 4-1-4-1 / Ceara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Botafogo SP wins 1, draws 1, Ceara wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 17 6 8 44:31 13 57
W W W D W
2 31 16 8 7 35:19 16 56
W W L L W
3 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
4 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
5 31 14 11 6 36:27 9 53
D D W D W
6 31 14 10 7 39:27 12 52
W W L W W
7 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
8 31 14 6 11 46:44 2 48
L W L W L
9 31 13 9 9 43:41 2 48
L D W D W
10 31 11 13 7 32:25 7 46
W L W D W
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
15
Ceara Away
31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 31 9 8 14 34:37 -3 35
L W D L L
17 31 8 6 17 30:42 -12 30
L L L D L
18 31 7 7 17 39:45 -6 28
L L L W W
19 31 4 5 22 21:52 -31 17
L L L L W
20 31 3 4 24 17:66 -49 13
L L W L L
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