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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
22.05.2026 15:00
Stadion Spartak
Referee: V. Mitrev
Spartak Varna
Match Timeline
Lokomotiv Sofia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
G. Stojanovski · Assist: Jota Lopes
Spartak Varna
🟨
22'
Deyan Lozev
Spartak Varna
⚽
30'
G. Stojanovski · Assist: Xande
Spartak Varna
🔄
59'
J. Ibe ↔ E. Gerov
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
59'
Caue Caruzo ↔ V. Arhipov
Lokomotiv Sofia
⚽
62'
G. Stojanovski · Assist: B. Ivanov
Spartak Varna
🔄
66'
M. Zakhariev ↔ Luann
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
72'
D. Yordanov ↔ T. Marinov
Spartak Varna
🔄
73'
Tailson ↔ E. John
Spartak Varna
🟨
74'
Georg Stojanovski
Spartak Varna
🟨
81'
Adil Taoui
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
82'
A. Taoui ↔ B. Sally
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
82'
E. Dost ↔ V. Velichkov
Lokomotiv Sofia
🔄
85'
T. Chunchukov ↔ D. Ivanov
Spartak Varna
🔄
90'
Jota Lopes ↔ P. Prindzhev
Spartak Varna
🔄
90'
G. Stojanovski ↔ S. Moukachar
Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Spartak Varna Win 44.1%
Draw 0%
Lokomotiv Sofia Win 55.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spartak Varna1.03
Lokomotiv Sofia1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spartak Varna Spartak Varna
WWDLW
32 GF / 57 GA
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia
WLDWL
51 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
20
BTTS Yes
21
17
Over 2.5
18
1.71
Shots on Goal
2.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 36 matches
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia 36 matches
Spartak Varna Statistic Lokomotiv Sofia
7 Wins 11
13 Draws 14
16 Losses 11
32 Goals For 51
57 Goals Against 45
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
20 BTTS Yes 21
27 Over 1.5 27
17 Over 2.5 18
9 Over 3.5 12
9 Clean Sheets 9
12 Failed To Score 9
1.71 Shots On Goal 2.97
5.74 Total Shots 7.41
2.18 Corners 3.41
26.9% Ball Possession 34.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Lokomotiv Sofia's more proactive style and Spartak Varna's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lokomotiv Sofia. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Spartak Varna Analysis

Spartak Varna approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 34 points from 36 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 13 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 32:57, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Berna (6 goals), G. Stojanovski (5 goals), Xande (5 goals), with creative support from Xande (5 assists), G. Stojanovski (3 assists), Angel Granchov (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lokomotiv Sofia Analysis

Lokomotiv Sofia sit 10 with 47 points after 36 league matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 14 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 51:45 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by S. Delev (8 goals), Caue Caruzo (7 goals), A. Aralica (6 goals), with creative support from S. Delev (14 assists), Caue Caruzo (4 assists), Krasimir Stanoev (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Spartak Varna won 4 times, Lokomotiv Sofia won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:12 from Spartak Varna's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1 / Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Spartak Varna wins 4, draws 3, Lokomotiv Sofia wins 3

Standings

A PFG: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 4 4 64:22 42 70
D W D W W
2 30 17 9 4 57:20 37 60
L D W W W
3 30 18 5 7 50:31 19 59
W W L W W
4 30 16 8 6 43:23 20 56
D W W W L
5 30 11 13 6 30:33 -3 46
D D W W W
6 30 11 11 8 33:26 7 44
L D L L W
7 30 12 8 10 33:27 6 44
W L W W W
8 30 11 7 12 40:37 3 40
W D W W L
9 30 10 9 11 36:33 3 39
D L W L D
10 30 9 11 10 24:26 -2 38
W L D L W
11 30 9 10 11 40:39 1 37
L W L L W
12 30 5 12 13 25:50 -25 27
D W L L L
13 30 7 5 18 23:43 -20 26
L L D L L
14 30 7 5 18 25:58 -33 26
D W D L L
15 30 4 11 15 19:44 -25 23
D L L W L
16 30 3 8 19 15:45 -30 17
D L L L L
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