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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
16.09.2026 15:30
Lukoil Arena
Spartak Moscow
Match Timeline
Fakel
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
39'
Maksim Turishchev ↔ Hodaifa El Mhassani
Fakel
🟨
59'
Matvey Bardachev
Fakel
🔄
61'
Mirlind Daku ↔ Esequiel Barco
Spartak Moscow
🔄
61'
Marquinhos ↔ Igor Dmitriev
Spartak Moscow
🔄
64'
Anton Kovalev ↔ Belajdi Pusi
Fakel
🔄
64'
Aleksandr Koksharov ↔ Nikolay Giorgobiani
Fakel
🟨
66'
Albert Gabaraev
Fakel
🟥
66'
Matvey Bardachev
Fakel
🔄
75'
Daniil Denisov ↔ Danil Prutsev
Spartak Moscow
🔄
79'
Butta Magomedov ↔ Axel Gnapi
Fakel
🔄
79'
Darko Todorovic ↔ Yuriy Zhuravlev
Fakel
🟨
86'
Nikolay Giorgobiani
Fakel
⚽
90+1'
Manfred Ugalde
Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow vs Fakel Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.98
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.73
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83%
1.36 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.98 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.73 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.27 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.89 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.30 ▥
Probability Distribution
Spartak Moscow Win 83%
Draw 6.1%
Fakel Win 10.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Spartak Moscow1.58
Fakel1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow
WWDLW
30 GF / 15 GA
Fakel Fakel
WLDWL
25 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.76
Average Goals Scored
1.32
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
9
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
9
5
Shots on Goal
2.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow 17 matches
Fakel Fakel 19 matches
Spartak Moscow Statistic Fakel
11 Wins 4
3 Draws 8
3 Losses 7
30 Goals For 25
15 Goals Against 25
1.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
9 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 7
7 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 5
5 Shots On Goal 2.38
13.63 Total Shots 10.25
6.25 Corners 4.63
62.1% Ball Possession 47.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Spartak Moscow's more proactive style and Fakel's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Fakel. Fakel arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Spartak Moscow arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 13 points compared to Fakel in 16 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Spartak Moscow expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Fakel in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fakel having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Spartak Moscow Analysis

Spartak Moscow arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 13 points after 7 matches. The record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 12:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Ugalde (2 goals), C. Wooh (1 goals), R. Zobnin (1 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos (4 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Fakel Analysis

Fakel approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 2 points from 7 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 4:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on V. Yakimov (1 goals), A. Sutormin (1 goals), M. Turishchev (1 goals), with creative support from N. Giorgobiani (1 assists), B. Pusi (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Spartak Moscow won 5 times, Fakel won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:8 from Spartak Moscow's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.88 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.9%)
Predicted formations: Spartak Moscow 4-1-4-1 / Fakel 3-4-3
Missing players: Spartak Moscow 4, Fakel 1
H2H summary: Spartak Moscow wins 5, draws 1, Fakel wins 2

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 14:7 7 21
D D D W W
2 9 6 1 2 14:8 6 19
W W W W W
3 9 5 4 0 15:9 6 19
W D W D W
4 9 6 1 2 16:7 9 19
W W L D W
5 9 6 0 3 19:9 10 18
W W L W L
6 9 2 6 1 12:11 1 12
D D D W D
7 9 4 0 5 15:16 -1 12
L L W L L
8 9 3 2 4 14:12 2 11
L D L W D
9 9 2 5 2 13:14 -1 11
D W D D W
10 9 2 4 3 13:13 0 10
L W D D W
11 9 1 6 2 7:10 -3 9
D L D D D
12 9 2 2 5 10:17 -7 8
L L W L L
13 9 1 5 3 11:18 -7 8
W D D D L
14 9 1 4 4 8:11 -3 7
D L W L L
15 9 1 2 6 10:22 -12 5
D L L L L
16
Fakel Away
9 0 3 6 6:13 -7 3
L D L L D
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL