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NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
19.09.2026 16:45
Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel
Referee: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands
Sparta Rotterdam
Match Timeline
Heerenveen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
24'
Julian Baas
Sparta Rotterdam
⚽
28'
N. Courtens · Assist: L. Smans
Heerenveen
⚽
43'
J. Trenskow · Assist: M. Rivera
Heerenveen
⚽
56'
M. Rivera · Assist: L. Smans
Heerenveen
🟨
61'
Marvin Young
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
62'
J. Ideho ↔ T. Quintero
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
62'
I. Babadi ↔ N. Verschuren
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
62'
B. Martins Indi ↔ R. van Cruijsen
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
62'
J. Baas ↔ A. Kostic
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
72'
L. Martes ↔ B. Reith
Sparta Rotterdam
🔄
72'
L. Smans ↔ L. Oyen
Heerenveen
🔄
73'
J. Trenskow ↔ M. Farji
Heerenveen
⚽
75'
M. Farji · Assist: L. Oyen
Heerenveen
🔄
80'
M. Linday ↔ R. Meerveld
Heerenveen
🔄
80'
D. Vente ↔ R. Uldrikis
Heerenveen
🔄
85'
N. Courtens ↔ A. Bouziane
Heerenveen

Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.42
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
66.7%
1.53 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.40 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.42 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sparta Rotterdam Win 33.3%
Draw 28.6%
Heerenveen Win 38.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sparta Rotterdam1.91
Heerenveen2.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam
WWDLW
25 GF / 22 GA
Heerenveen Heerenveen
WLDWL
24 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.92
Average Goals Scored
2.4
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.9
9
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
7
5
Shots on Goal
5.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 13 matches
Heerenveen Heerenveen 10 matches
Sparta Rotterdam Statistic Heerenveen
4 Wins 4
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 2
25 Goals For 24
22 Goals Against 19
1.92 Avg Goals Scored 2.4
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.9
9 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 8
9 Over 2.5 7
8 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 2
5 Shots On Goal 5.5
13.5 Total Shots 14.83
6.5 Corners 5
45% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Heerenveen. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Sparta Rotterdam Analysis

So far, Sparta Rotterdam have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 5 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 9:9 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Zonneveld (3 goals), M. Young (2 goals), N. Þórisson (1 goals), with creative support from B. Kuipers (2 assists), S. Mito (2 assists), M. Zonneveld (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Heerenveen Analysis

Heerenveen sit 12 with 5 points after 5 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 7:9 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Trenskow (2 goals), R. Meerveld (1 goals), O. Braude (1 goals), with creative support from D. Vente (2 assists), J. Trenskow (1 assists), S. Kersten (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Sparta Rotterdam won 5 times, Heerenveen won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:20 from Sparta Rotterdam's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.79 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (71.4%)
Predicted formations: Sparta Rotterdam 4-2-3-1 / Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sparta Rotterdam 1, Heerenveen 4
H2H summary: Sparta Rotterdam wins 5, draws 3, Heerenveen wins 6

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 1 0 18:6 12 19
W D W W W
2 7 5 2 0 25:7 18 17
W W W D W
3 7 5 1 1 24:10 14 16
L W W W W
4 7 5 1 1 15:7 8 16
W W W D W
5 7 4 2 1 21:9 12 14
D W W L W
6 7 4 1 2 13:14 -1 13
W L W W L
7 7 3 2 2 15:9 6 11
D L D W W
8 7 3 2 2 15:13 2 11
W D D L L
9 7 2 4 1 16:14 2 10
D D D L W
10 7 2 3 2 11:9 2 9
W D L D L
11 7 2 2 3 12:13 -1 8
D L D L W
12 7 1 2 4 10:17 -7 5
L L D L D
13 7 1 2 4 5:12 -7 5
L D L D L
14 7 1 2 4 10:19 -9 5
D W D L L
15 7 1 2 4 11:24 -13 5
L W D L D
16 7 1 1 5 6:20 -14 4
L L D L W
17 7 0 2 5 7:17 -10 2
D L L D L
18 7 0 2 5 6:20 -14 2
L L D L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie