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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
08.10.2026 01:20
Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.4%
Odds 1.65
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 45.3%
Odds 1.80
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.4%
1.65 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
45.3%
1.80 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.28 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Nacional Win 71.4%
Draw 4%
Deportes Tolima Win 24.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Nacional1.51
Deportes Tolima1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WWDLW
73 GF / 39 GA
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WLDWL
57 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
19
BTTS Yes
20
25
Over 2.5
19
6.11
Shots on Goal
4.62

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 39 matches
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 47 matches
Atletico Nacional Statistic Deportes Tolima
25 Wins 19
3 Draws 13
11 Losses 15
73 Goals For 57
39 Goals Against 46
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
19 BTTS Yes 20
31 Over 1.5 30
25 Over 2.5 19
9 Over 3.5 10
11 Clean Sheets 17
10 Failed To Score 16
6.11 Shots On Goal 4.62
16.37 Total Shots 13.02
5.43 Corners 4.91
58.2% Ball Possession 57%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportes Tolima. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Atletico Nacional come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 40 points after 19 matches. With 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 35:15, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Morelos (13 goals), A. Sarmiento (8 goals), J. Rengifo (7 goals), with creative support from J. Rengifo (7 assists), A. Morelos (6 assists), A. Sarmiento (6 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

So far, Deportes Tolima have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 31 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 27:17 reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Sandoval (8 goals), Juan Torres (6 goals), A. Parra (5 goals), with creative support from L. Sandoval (4 assists), Juan Torres (4 assists), S. Guzmán (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Nacional won 6 times, Deportes Tolima won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:19 from Atletico Nacional's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1 / Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Nacional wins 6, draws 4, Deportes Tolima wins 5

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D L W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W D L W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L L W L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D D D L L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D W W D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D L W D
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W L L D L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W W W D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L D D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W L W W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L D D L
Post season qualification