Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
71.4%
|
1.65 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
67.1%
|
1.73 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
45.3%
|
1.80 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.28 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
2.50 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
8.50 |
Atletico Nacional
Deportes Tolima
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Atletico Nacional
39 matches
Deportes Tolima
47 matches
| Atletico Nacional | Statistic | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wins | 19 |
| 3 | Draws | 13 |
| 11 | Losses | 15 |
| 73 | Goals For | 57 |
| 39 | Goals Against | 46 |
| 1.87 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.21 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.98 |
| 19 | BTTS Yes | 20 |
| 31 | Over 1.5 | 30 |
| 25 | Over 2.5 | 19 |
| 9 | Over 3.5 | 10 |
| 11 | Clean Sheets | 17 |
| 10 | Failed To Score | 16 |
| 6.11 | Shots On Goal | 4.62 |
| 16.37 | Total Shots | 13.02 |
| 5.43 | Corners | 4.91 |
| 58.2% | Ball Possession | 57% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportes Tolima. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.
Atletico Nacional come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 40 points after 19 matches. With 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 35:15, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Morelos (13 goals), A. Sarmiento (8 goals), J. Rengifo (7 goals), with creative support from J. Rengifo (7 assists), A. Morelos (6 assists), A. Sarmiento (6 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.
So far, Deportes Tolima have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 31 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 27:17 reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Sandoval (8 goals), Juan Torres (6 goals), A. Parra (5 goals), with creative support from L. Sandoval (4 assists), Juan Torres (4 assists), S. Guzmán (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Nacional won 6 times, Deportes Tolima won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:19 from Atletico Nacional's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Atletico Nacional
Home
|
19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | 20 | 40 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
| 2 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | 7 | 35 |
L
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 3 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | 4 | 34 |
D
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | 10 | 33 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | 9 | 33 |
D
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 6 |
Deportes Tolima
Away
|
19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | 10 | 31 |
D
D
D
L
L
|
| 7 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | 7 | 29 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 |
D
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | 4 | 27 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | 8 | 26 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | 2 | 26 |
L
D
L
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 |
W
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 13 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | 6 | 23 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 14 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 15 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 |
D
D
L
D
D
|
|
| 16 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 |
L
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 17 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 18 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 |
D
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 |
W
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 20 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 |
L
L
D
D
L
|