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IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
04.05.2026 16:00
Tallaght Stadium
Shamrock Rovers
Match Timeline
Drogheda United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
29'
J. McGovern
Shamrock Rovers
⚽
35'
M. Healy · Assist: J. Byrne
Shamrock Rovers
⚽
48'
M. Doyle · Assist: J. Godden
Drogheda United
⚽
58'
J. McGovern · Assist: V. Ozhianvuna
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
59'
A. Quinn ↔ W. Davis
Drogheda United
🟨
61'
Adam Matthews
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
67'
M. Doyle ↔ T. Oluwa
Drogheda United
⚽
67'
M. Asamoah · Assist: J. McGovern
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
72'
D. Cleary ↔ J. Mulraney
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
72'
J. Byrne ↔ J. O'Sullivan
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
72'
A. Matthews ↔ E. Stevens
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
72'
M. Healy ↔ N. Razi
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
72'
C. Keeley ↔ L. Burney
Drogheda United
🔄
72'
K. Cruise ↔ D. Kareem
Drogheda United
🔄
73'
A. Greene ↔ B. Mahon
Shamrock Rovers
🟨
74'
Brandon Kavanagh
Drogheda United

Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Shamrock Rovers Win 70.4%
Draw 11.6%
Drogheda United Win 18%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shamrock Rovers1.66
Drogheda United1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers
WWDLW
29 GF / 11 GA
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WLDWL
22 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.81
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
6
BTTS Yes
11
6
Over 2.5
8
4.29
Shots on Goal
3.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 16 matches
Drogheda United Drogheda United 16 matches
Shamrock Rovers Statistic Drogheda United
10 Wins 5
4 Draws 6
2 Losses 5
29 Goals For 22
11 Goals Against 23
1.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
6 BTTS Yes 11
11 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 6
9 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 2
4.29 Shots On Goal 3.77
13.14 Total Shots 10.38
5.29 Corners 4.31
59.4% Ball Possession 40.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Shamrock Rovers's more proactive style and Drogheda United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Drogheda United. Shamrock Rovers arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 28 points compared to Drogheda United in 8 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shamrock Rovers expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Drogheda United in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Drogheda United having the stronger overall control. Shamrock Rovers come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Shamrock Rovers Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 28 points from 14 games, Shamrock Rovers bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 8 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 20:11, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by G. Burke (5 goals), R. Lopes (3 goals), Aaron Greene (2 goals), with creative support from J. Byrne (3 assists), Cory O'Sullivan (2 assists), T. Sobowale (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Drogheda United Analysis

So far, Drogheda United have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 16 points from 13 matches. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 17:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Doyle (5 goals), Conor Keeley (3 goals), W. Davis (3 goals), with creative support from B. Kavanagh (2 assists), Conor Keeley (1 assists), T. Oluwa (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Shamrock Rovers won 9 times, Drogheda United won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:8 from Shamrock Rovers's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.4%)
Predicted formations: Shamrock Rovers 3-4-2-1 / Drogheda United 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Shamrock Rovers wins 9, draws 5, Drogheda United wins 1

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 8 6 52:32 20 62
W W L D D
2 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
3 32 17 8 7 57:38 19 59
W W W W W
4 33 10 13 10 47:46 1 43
W D W L L
5 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
6 33 10 11 12 50:55 -5 41
L L L D W
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 33 8 10 15 39:54 -15 34
L L W W L
10 33 5 8 20 25:59 -34 23
L L L L L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation