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30.04.2026 19:00
Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana
Referee: F. Zwayer
Shakhtar Donetsk
Match Timeline
Crystal Palace
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
I. Sarr · Assist: J. Mateta
Crystal Palace
🟨
31'
Oleg Ocheretko
Shakhtar Donetsk
🟨
38'
Vinícius Tobias
Shakhtar Donetsk
🟨
44'
Yéremy Pino
Crystal Palace
⚽
47'
O. Ocheretko · Assist: Kaua Elias
Shakhtar Donetsk
🟨
52'
Pedro Henrique
Shakhtar Donetsk
🟨
56'
Jaydee Canvot
Crystal Palace
⚽
58'
D. Kamada · Assist: M. Lacroix
Crystal Palace
🔄
65'
Marlon Gomes ↔ Isaque Silva
Shakhtar Donetsk
🔄
65'
J. Mateta ↔ J. S. Larsen
Crystal Palace
🔄
74'
Eguinaldo ↔ Newerton
Shakhtar Donetsk
🔄
74'
Pedrinho ↔ A. Bondarenko
Shakhtar Donetsk
🔄
74'
Y. Pino ↔ B. Johnson
Crystal Palace
🔄
83'
Kaua Elias ↔ L. Traore
Shakhtar Donetsk
🔄
83'
O. Ocheretko ↔ Y. Nazaryna
Shakhtar Donetsk
⚽
84'
J. S. Larsen · Assist: D. Kamada
Crystal Palace
🔄
90'
D. Kamada ↔ J. Lerma
Crystal Palace

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Crystal Palace Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
88.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Shakhtar Donetsk Win 66.8%
Draw 4%
Crystal Palace Win 29.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shakhtar Donetsk1.72
Crystal Palace1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk
WWDLW
93 GF / 30 GA
Crystal Palace Crystal Palace
WLDWL
58 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
2.16
Average Goals Scored
1.21
0.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
18
BTTS Yes
24
24
Over 2.5
24
3.98
Shots on Goal
4.19

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 43 matches
Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 48 matches
Shakhtar Donetsk Statistic Crystal Palace
28 Wins 18
12 Draws 14
3 Losses 16
93 Goals For 58
30 Goals Against 51
2.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
0.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
18 BTTS Yes 24
31 Over 1.5 33
24 Over 2.5 24
16 Over 3.5 8
25 Clean Sheets 19
6 Failed To Score 13
3.98 Shots On Goal 4.19
10.08 Total Shots 13.17
3.68 Corners 4.6
41.1% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shakhtar Donetsk expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Crystal Palace in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Crystal Palace having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Crystal Palace. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Shakhtar Donetsk Analysis

Shakhtar Donetsk enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 6 matches, placing them 6 in their league. Their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 10:5 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Alisson (3 goals), Kaua Elias (3 goals), Luca Meirelles (3 goals), with creative support from Kaua Elias (3 assists), Marlon Gomes (3 assists), Pedrinho (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Crystal Palace Analysis

Crystal Palace come into this tie placed 10 in their league with 10 points from 6 matches. With 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses plus a goal ratio of 11:6, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on I. Sarr (7 goals), C. Uche (2 goals), E. Nketiah (2 goals), with creative support from D. Kamada (3 assists), J. Mateta (2 assists), Y. Pino (2 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Shakhtar Donetsk won 0 times, Crystal Palace won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:5 from Shakhtar Donetsk's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Shakhtar Donetsk 4-1-4-1 / Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Shakhtar Donetsk wins 0, draws 0, Crystal Palace wins 2

Standings

UEFA Conference League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 11:5 6 16
W W W W D
2 6 4 2 0 9:2 7 14
W W W D D
3 6 4 1 1 14:7 7 13
W W W D W
4 6 4 1 1 10:3 7 13
W W W D L
5 6 4 1 1 13:7 6 13
W W L W D
6 6 4 1 1 10:5 5 13
D W W W L
7 6 4 1 1 7:3 4 13
W D L W W
8 6 3 3 0 7:1 6 12
W D D D W
9 6 3 2 1 6:3 3 11
W D L D W
10 6 3 1 2 11:6 5 10
D W L W L
11 6 3 1 2 12:8 4 10
W D W L L
12 6 3 1 2 10:6 4 10
L L D W W
13 6 3 1 2 8:7 1 10
D L L W W
14 6 3 1 2 7:7 0 10
D W W L W
15 6 3 0 3 8:5 3 9
L W L L W
16 6 2 3 1 5:2 3 9
D W D D W
17 6 2 3 1 5:4 1 9
D L W D D
18 6 2 2 2 5:4 1 8
L W W D D
19 6 2 2 2 6:7 -1 8
L W D L D
20 6 2 2 2 4:8 -4 8
L L W W D
21 6 1 4 1 6:5 1 7
D D L W D
22 6 2 1 3 4:5 -1 7
L W L D W
23 6 2 1 3 8:10 -2 7
D L W L L
24 6 2 1 3 7:9 -2 7
L L W W D
25 6 2 1 3 6:8 -2 7
L L W W D
26 6 2 1 3 7:15 -8 7
L W L D W
27 6 2 0 4 9:9 0 6
W L L W L
28 6 2 0 4 8:8 0 6
W L L L W
29 6 2 0 4 5:9 -4 6
W L W L L
30 6 1 2 3 6:11 -5 5
L W D L D
31 6 1 1 4 7:13 -6 4
W L L D L
32 6 0 3 3 5:8 -3 3
L D L L D
33 6 1 0 5 4:11 -7 3
L L W L L
34 6 0 2 4 0:7 -7 2
D L L L L
35 6 0 2 4 3:14 -11 2
L L D D L
36 6 0 1 5 3:14 -11 1
D L L L L
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)