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20.09.2026 17:45
Estadio Pedro Bidegain
Referee: Nazareno Arasa, Argentina
San Lorenzo
Match Timeline
Boca Juniors
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
31'
Manuel Insaurralde
San Lorenzo
🟨
34'
Facundo Herrera
Boca Juniors
🔄
35'
A. Cuello ↔ J. Rattalino
San Lorenzo
🟨
41'
Leandro Lozano
Boca Juniors
🟨
46'
Lautaro Di Lollo
Boca Juniors
🔄
46'
F. Herrera ↔ M. Pellegrino
Boca Juniors
🔄
55'
R. Auzmendi ↔ D. Herazo
San Lorenzo
🔄
55'
F. Farias ↔ J. Alvarez
San Lorenzo
⚽
57'
L. Lozano · Assist: L. Flores
Boca Juniors
🔄
67'
E. Herrera ↔ M. Reali
San Lorenzo
🔄
68'
N. Tripichio ↔ F. Gulli
San Lorenzo
🟨
70'
Matias Reali
San Lorenzo
⚽
72'
Miguel Merentiel · Assist: L. Blanco
Boca Juniors
🔄
73'
S. Ascacibar ↔ Carlos Palacios
Boca Juniors
🔄
73'
A. Velasco ↔ Angel Romero
Boca Juniors
🟨
80'
Facundo Gulli
San Lorenzo
🔄
83'
L. Flores ↔ T. Belmonte
Boca Juniors
🔄
83'
Miguel Merentiel ↔ S. Villa
Boca Juniors

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.8%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.8%
1.36 ▥
BTTS No
60.3%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.45 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.2%
1.39 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
5.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
San Lorenzo Win 50.7%
Draw 5.2%
Boca Juniors Win 44.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Lorenzo0.84
Boca Juniors1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
WWDLW
25 GF / 22 GA
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
WLDWL
49 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1.29
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
9
BTTS Yes
17
4
Over 2.5
13
3.69
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 28 matches
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 38 matches
San Lorenzo Statistic Boca Juniors
9 Wins 17
11 Draws 14
8 Losses 7
25 Goals For 49
22 Goals Against 29
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
9 BTTS Yes 17
12 Over 1.5 25
4 Over 2.5 13
3 Over 3.5 5
14 Clean Sheets 17
10 Failed To Score 8
3.69 Shots On Goal 4.56
10.69 Total Shots 13.47
3.69 Corners 5.19
49.6% Ball Possession 56.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Boca Juniors's more proactive style and San Lorenzo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Lorenzo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Boca Juniors in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Boca Juniors having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Boca Juniors.

San Lorenzo Analysis

So far, San Lorenzo have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 22 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 14:14 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Auzmendi (4 goals), A. Cuello (2 goals), E. Herrera (1 goals), with creative support from M. Reali (1 assists), Facundo Gulli (1 assists), Nahuel Barrios (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Boca Juniors Analysis

Boca Juniors come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 30 points from 16 matches. The record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 22:9 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Velasco (4 goals), M. Giménez (4 goals), Adam Bareiro (3 goals), with creative support from Tomás Aranda (3 assists), M. Merentiel (2 assists), D. Gorosito (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, San Lorenzo won 4 times, Boca Juniors won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:16 from San Lorenzo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.42 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: San Lorenzo 4-4-2 / Boca Juniors 4-3-3
H2H summary: San Lorenzo wins 4, draws 3, Boca Juniors wins 5

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L W L D
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W W W D W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D W D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L W L D
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L W D W L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
D W W W L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L L D W L
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L W W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W W W L W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W D W L W
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D L D W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D L L D L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D L L D
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D W D D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D L D D
Knockout Phase