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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA B
03.10.2026 20:30
Estadio Villa Concha
Real Santander
Match Timeline
Union Magdalena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
23'
R. Blanco
Union Magdalena
🟨
26'
A. Ariza
Real Santander
⚽
35'
R. Rodriguez
Union Magdalena
⚽
37'
A. Ariza
Real Santander
🟨
41'
O. Surmay
Union Magdalena
🟨
45+2'
W. Sagrera
Union Magdalena
🔄
46'
J. Lerma ↔ F. Molina
Union Magdalena
🔄
46'
K. Salazar ↔ F. Mosquera
Union Magdalena
🟨
48'
F. Molina
Union Magdalena
🔄
50'
J. Mercado ↔ C. Iguaran
Union Magdalena
⚽
59'
M. Ballesteros
Union Magdalena
🔄
63'
L. Rangel ↔ Rueda Juan
Real Santander
🔄
63'
M. Diaz ↔ A. Segura
Real Santander
🔄
79'
M. Ballesteros ↔ J. Pimienta
Union Magdalena
🔄
79'
R. Rodriguez ↔ J. Farias
Union Magdalena
🔄
80'
J. P. Garcia Habib ↔ J. Ararat
Real Santander
🔄
80'
P. Rodriguez ↔ B. Moreno
Real Santander
🔄
80'
B. Roman ↔ J. Delgado
Real Santander
🟨
90+4'
Real Santander
Real Santander

Real Santander vs Union Magdalena Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.76
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.04
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.1%
2.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.76 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.04 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.45 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Real Santander Win 41.7%
Draw 4.2%
Union Magdalena Win 54.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Santander0.89
Union Magdalena1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Santander Real Santander
WWDLW
21 GF / 38 GA
Union Magdalena Union Magdalena
WLDWL
42 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.84
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
14
BTTS Yes
17
9
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Santander Real Santander 25 matches
Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 31 matches
Real Santander Statistic Union Magdalena
3 Wins 14
10 Draws 8
12 Losses 9
21 Goals For 42
38 Goals Against 30
0.84 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
14 BTTS Yes 17
19 Over 1.5 24
9 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Union Magdalena's more proactive style and Real Santander's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Union Magdalena arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Union Magdalena having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Union Magdalena. Union Magdalena carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 48 points while Real Santander sit 16 on 18, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Real Santander Analysis

Real Santander sit 16 with 18 points after 24 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 9 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 20:37 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Union Magdalena Analysis

Union Magdalena sit 5 with 48 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 14 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 40:28 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Real Santander won 3 times, Union Magdalena won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:33 from Real Santander's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
H2H summary: Real Santander wins 3, draws 3, Union Magdalena wins 8

Standings

Primera B: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 40:28 12 59
L W W W L
2 32 16 9 7 33:21 12 57
W W L L D
3 34 15 11 8 46:31 15 56
D D W D D
4 35 15 11 9 55:41 14 56
D L D D L
5 32 15 8 9 45:31 14 53
D W D W L
6 33 12 10 11 33:27 6 46
D W D W D
7 27 11 10 6 29:21 8 43
D W W L W
8 33 9 12 12 28:35 -7 39
D D L W D
9 27 9 9 9 33:30 3 36
L W W W W
10 27 9 8 10 30:34 -4 35
D L L L W
11 32 9 8 15 37:43 -6 35
D L L L L
12 26 7 10 9 33:34 -1 31
D W W W W
13 26 6 9 11 20:28 -8 27
L D L D L
14 27 5 9 13 27:42 -15 24
D L L L W
15 27 4 10 13 23:41 -18 22
W L D D L
16 26 4 8 14 16:41 -25 20
D L L D L
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)