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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
11.10.2026 21:05
Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria
Referee: Diaz Vargas, Carlos Alberto

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 47.4%
Odds 1.71
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
47.4%
1.71 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.03 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Jaguares Win 35.3%
Draw 17.4%
Deportes Tolima Win 47.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jaguares1
Deportes Tolima1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jaguares Jaguares
WWDLW
31 GF / 53 GA
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WLDWL
57 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
16
BTTS Yes
20
16
Over 2.5
19
3.6
Shots on Goal
4.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jaguares Jaguares 30 matches
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 48 matches
Jaguares Statistic Deportes Tolima
6 Wins 19
7 Draws 14
17 Losses 15
31 Goals For 57
53 Goals Against 46
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
16 BTTS Yes 20
24 Over 1.5 30
16 Over 2.5 19
9 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 18
9 Failed To Score 17
3.6 Shots On Goal 4.69
10.9 Total Shots 13.08
4.03 Corners 4.92
45.4% Ball Possession 56.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Deportes Tolima's more proactive style and Jaguares's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Jaguares have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Deportes Tolima. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Deportes Tolima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 31 points while Jaguares sit 16 on 18, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Jaguares Analysis

Jaguares approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 18 points from 19 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 20:33, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Rentería (10 goals), D. López (5 goals), C. Álvarez (3 goals), with creative support from A. Rentería (3 assists), C. Álvarez (3 assists), D. Rodríguez (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

Deportes Tolima sit 6 with 31 points after 19 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, while the 27:17 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Sandoval (8 goals), Juan Torres (6 goals), A. Parra (5 goals), with creative support from L. Sandoval (4 assists), Juan Torres (4 assists), S. Guzmán (4 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Jaguares won 1 times, Deportes Tolima won 9 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:28 from Jaguares's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Jaguares 4-2-3-1 / Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Jaguares wins 1, draws 5, Deportes Tolima wins 9

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
D W D L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W D L W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L L W L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D D D D L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D D W W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D L W D
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D W L L D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W W W D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L D D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L D D L
Post season qualification