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09.10.2026 18:00
Philips Stadion

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 47.2%
Odds 1.24
BTTS
Yes
Probability 81.2%
Odds 1.36
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76%
Odds 1.13
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
47.2%
1.24 ▥
BTTS Yes
81.2%
1.36 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76%
1.13 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.73 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.67 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
PSV Eindhoven Win 47.2%
Draw 15.6%
Heerenveen Win 37.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
PSV Eindhoven2.54
Heerenveen2.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven
WWDLW
40 GF / 20 GA
Heerenveen Heerenveen
WLDWL
28 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
3.08
Average Goals Scored
2.55
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
12
BTTS Yes
7
11
Over 2.5
8
7.63
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 13 matches
Heerenveen Heerenveen 11 matches
PSV Eindhoven Statistic Heerenveen
8 Wins 5
3 Draws 4
2 Losses 2
40 Goals For 28
20 Goals Against 19
3.08 Avg Goals Scored 2.55
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
12 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 9
11 Over 2.5 8
9 Over 3.5 8
1 Clean Sheets 3
0 Failed To Score 2
7.63 Shots On Goal 6
19.63 Total Shots 16
7 Corners 5.14
62.5% Ball Possession 54%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. PSV Eindhoven appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Heerenveen. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Heerenveen. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. PSV Eindhoven come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. PSV Eindhoven arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 16 points compared to Heerenveen in 10 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

PSV Eindhoven Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 16 points from 7 games, PSV Eindhoven bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 24:10, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through S. Mijnans (4 goals), G. Til (4 goals), R. Pepi (3 goals), with creative support from S. Dest (2 assists), R. van Bommel (2 assists), Mauro Júnior (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Geertruida, K. Sildillia, J. Schouten unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Heerenveen Analysis

Heerenveen are currently 10 in the standings with 9 points from 7 matches. The record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 11:9 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Trenskow (3 goals), M. Rivera (2 goals), N. Courtens (2 goals), with creative support from L. Smans (3 assists), D. Vente (2 assists), J. Trenskow (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Egbring, D. Proper, M. Hilgers unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, PSV Eindhoven won 9 times, Heerenveen won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:14 from PSV Eindhoven's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.5%)
Predicted formations: PSV Eindhoven 4-2-3-1 / Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
Missing players: PSV Eindhoven 9, Heerenveen 3
H2H summary: PSV Eindhoven wins 9, draws 4, Heerenveen wins 1

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 1 0 18:6 12 19
W D W W W
2 7 5 2 0 25:7 18 17
W W W D W
3 7 5 1 1 24:10 14 16
L W W W W
4 7 5 1 1 15:7 8 16
W W W D W
5 7 4 2 1 21:9 12 14
D W W L W
6 7 4 1 2 13:14 -1 13
W L W W L
7 7 3 2 2 15:9 6 11
D L D W W
8 7 3 2 2 15:13 2 11
W D D L L
9 7 2 4 1 16:14 2 10
D D D L W
10 7 2 3 2 11:9 2 9
W D L D L
11 7 2 2 3 12:13 -1 8
D L D L W
12 7 1 2 4 10:17 -7 5
L L D L D
13 7 1 2 4 5:12 -7 5
L D L D L
14 7 1 2 4 10:19 -9 5
D W D L L
15 7 1 2 4 11:24 -13 5
L W D L D
16 7 1 1 5 6:20 -14 4
L L D L W
17 7 0 2 5 7:17 -10 2
D L L D L
18 7 0 2 5 6:20 -14 2
L L D L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie