BRAZIL SERIE B
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 75.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
75.4%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 24.6%
Draw 39.8%
Avai Win 35.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta0.94
Avai1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WWDLW
16 GF / 48 GA
Avai Avai
WLDWL
25 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.7
Average Goals Scored
1.09
2.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
12
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
11
3.43
Shots on Goal
3.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 23 matches
Avai Avai 23 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic Avai
2 Wins 7
4 Draws 5
17 Losses 11
16 Goals For 25
48 Goals Against 30
0.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
2.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
12 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 7
3.43 Shots On Goal 3.22
10.52 Total Shots 11.04
4.78 Corners 3.7
42.4% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Ponte Preta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Avai. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Avai in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avai having the stronger overall control.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 10 points from 22 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 16:42, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Avai Analysis

Avai sit 18 with 20 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats with a 21:28 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Daniel Penha (3 goals), Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Sorriso (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (3 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), Daniel Penha (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 5 times, Avai won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:12 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (75.4%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 3-4-2-1 / Avai 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ponte Preta wins 5, draws 5, Avai wins 5
Last matches: Ponte Preta
19.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
0
6
L
14.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
07.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Ceara
0
2
L
28.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Athletic Club
1
1
D
22.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Operario-PR
2
3
L
18.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Goias
1
2
L
08.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Criciuma
1
2
L
03.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Fortaleza EC
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Atletico Goianiense
0
2
L
22.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Juventude
0
3
L
09.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Cuiaba
1
2
L
01.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Botafogo SP
0
0
D
24.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
CRB
2
4
L
18.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Londrina
1
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Sport Recife
1
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
São Bernardo
0
3
L
24.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
America Mineiro
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Avai
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
0
1
L
Last matches: Avai
19.08.26
Ser
Avai
Sport Recife
2
1
W
16.08.26
Ser
Avai
Operario-PR
2
1
W
11.08.26
Ser
Avai
CRB
0
1
L
28.07.26
Ser
Avai
Juventude
0
1
L
21.07.26
Ser
Avai
America Mineiro
2
1
W
17.07.26
Ser
Avai
São Bernardo
1
1
D
12.07.26
Ser
Avai
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
06.07.26
Ser
Avai
Botafogo SP
1
3
L
28.06.26
Ser
Avai
Athletic Club
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Avai
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.06.26
Ser
Avai
Londrina
2
3
L
10.06.26
Ser
Avai
Ceara
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Avai
Criciuma
1
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Avai
Goias
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Avai
Vila Nova
0
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Avai
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Avai
Novorizontino
3
3
D
26.04.26
Ser
Avai
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Avai
Ponte Preta
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Avai
Sport Recife
2
2
D
H2H: Ponte Preta vs Avai
18.04.26
H2H
Avai
Ponte Preta
1
2
W
22.11.24
H2H
Avai
Ponte Preta
2
1
L
04.08.24
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
1
0
W
04.11.23
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
0
1
L
08.07.23
H2H
Avai
Ponte Preta
0
1
W
05.10.21
H2H
Avai
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
06.07.21
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
0
0
D
11.12.20
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
1
2
L
11.09.20
H2H
Avai
Ponte Preta
0
1
W
24.11.18
H2H
Avai
Ponte Preta
0
0
D
04.08.18
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
2
2
D
22.10.17
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
1
2
L
02.07.17
H2H
Avai
Ponte Preta
0
0
D
28.11.15
H2H
Avai
Ponte Preta
1
0
L
13.08.15
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
2
0
W
Last matches: Ponte Preta
14.08.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
1
1
D
28.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Athletic Club
1
1
D
18.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Goias
1
2
L
08.07.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Criciuma
1
2
L
22.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
0
2
L
09.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Cuiaba
1
2
L
01.06.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Botafogo SP
0
0
D
18.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Londrina
1
4
L
09.05.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Sport Recife
1
3
L
24.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
America Mineiro
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
Ponte Preta
Ceara
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ponte Preta
04.08.24
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
1
0
W
04.11.23
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
0
1
L
06.07.21
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
0
0
D
11.12.20
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
1
2
L
04.08.18
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
2
2
D
22.10.17
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
1
2
L
13.08.15
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
2
0
W
Last matches: Avai
16.08.26
Ser
Avai
Operario-PR
2
1
W
28.07.26
Ser
Avai
Juventude
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Avai
São Bernardo
1
1
D
06.07.26
Ser
Avai
Botafogo SP
1
3
L
28.06.26
Ser
Avai
Athletic Club
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Avai
Londrina
2
3
L
10.06.26
Ser
Avai
Ceara
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Avai
Vila Nova
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Avai
Atletico Goianiense
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Avai
Sport Recife
2
2
D
02.04.26
Ser
Avai
CRB
1
0
W
H2H away: Avai
04.08.24
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
1
0
L
04.11.23
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
0
1
W
06.07.21
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
0
0
D
11.12.20
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
1
2
W
04.08.18
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
2
2
D
22.10.17
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
1
2
W
13.08.15
H2H
Ponte Preta
Avai
2
0
L

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 24:14 10 43
W L D W W
2 23 12 6 5 24:12 12 42
W D W W L
3 23 12 4 7 35:25 10 40
W W L L W
4 23 10 7 6 25:21 4 37
D D D W L
5 23 10 5 8 30:31 -1 35
L L L L W
6 23 8 11 4 29:22 7 35
L W W D D
7 22 9 7 6 32:20 12 34
D L W L L
8 22 8 10 4 24:19 5 34
W W D W D
9 22 9 6 7 32:32 0 33
D W W W W
10 23 8 9 6 24:23 1 33
D L D W W
11 23 9 5 9 22:28 -6 32
L L W L D
12 23 7 11 5 20:17 3 32
W W D D L
13 23 8 7 8 32:26 6 31
D L W L L
14 22 8 6 8 27:22 5 30
W W L W D
15 23 8 6 9 27:26 1 30
W D D D W
16
Avai Away
23 7 5 11 25:30 -5 26
W W L L W
17 23 6 7 10 23:29 -6 25
L L W W L
18 23 5 6 12 28:34 -6 21
D L L L L
19 22 2 5 15 16:36 -20 11
L L W L D
20 23 2 4 17 16:48 -32 10
L D L D L
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