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30.08.2026 00:00
Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas
Referee: M. Araos
Nublense
Match Timeline
Concepción
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
30'
J. Henriquez
Concepción
🟨
41'
Norman Rodriguez
Concepción
🟨
43'
Pablo Calderón
Nublense
🔄
46'
M. Rivera ↔ F. Campos Mosqueira
Nublense
🔄
46'
M. Plaza ↔ F. Ovelar
Nublense
🔄
46'
G. Graciani ↔ E. Calderon
Nublense
🔄
50'
A. Caceres ↔ F. Martinez
Concepción
🔄
55'
C. Escobar ↔ F. Romero
Concepción
🔄
60'
D. Sanhueza ↔ I. Jeraldino
Nublense
🟨
65'
Felipe Campos
Nublense
🔄
74'
J. Henriquez ↔ M. Davila Carvajal
Concepción
🔄
74'
J. Montecinos ↔ J. Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
74'
E. Espinoza ↔ A. Jara
Concepción
🟨
75'
Jovany Campusano
Nublense
🔄
90+3'
L. Molina Canto ↔ C. Salomon
Nublense

Nublense vs Concepción Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.4%
Odds 2.21
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.53
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.4%
2.21 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.53 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.3%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60 ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
19.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Nublense Win 65.4%
Draw 4.1%
Concepción Win 30.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nublense1.32
Concepción1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nublense Nublense
WWDLW
35 GF / 28 GA
Concepción Concepción
WLDWL
34 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
13
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
10
4.05
Shots on Goal
3.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nublense Nublense 25 matches
Concepción Concepción 27 matches
Nublense Statistic Concepción
12 Wins 12
9 Draws 4
4 Losses 11
35 Goals For 34
28 Goals Against 32
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
13 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 22
10 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 3
10 Clean Sheets 9
3 Failed To Score 7
4.05 Shots On Goal 3.65
12.47 Total Shots 13.05
4.47 Corners 4.4
45.8% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Nublense's more proactive style and Concepción's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nublense expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Concepción in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Concepción having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Concepción. Concepción look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Nublense Analysis

Nublense approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 32 points after 19 outings. The return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 26:23, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Sebastián Valencia (3 goals), Matías Plaza (2 goals), Ignacio Jeraldino (2 goals), with creative support from Matías Plaza (4 assists), Manuel Rivera (1 assists), Jovany Campusano (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Concepción Analysis

So far, Concepción have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 26 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, while the 22:23 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on Joaquín Larrivey (7 goals), Cecilio Waterman (3 goals), Mario Sandoval (2 goals), with creative support from Yerco Oyanedel (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Joaquín Larrivey (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Nublense won 1 times, Concepción won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:0 from Nublense's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Nublense 3-5-2 / Concepción 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nublense wins 1, draws 0, Concepción wins 0

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 17 3 3 48:22 26 54
D D W W D
2 23 13 3 7 50:33 17 42
W W W W L
3 23 12 6 5 35:19 16 42
W W L L W
4 23 10 6 7 37:25 12 36
W L W W D
5 23 11 3 9 36:33 3 36
L W L W W
6 23 10 3 10 43:35 8 33
L W W L W
7 23 8 8 7 28:31 -3 32
L L L L W
8 23 9 4 10 25:26 -1 31
D L W D W
9 23 7 9 7 34:38 -4 30
L W W D W
10 22 8 5 9 31:31 0 29
L L L W L
11 23 7 7 9 26:31 -5 28
W W L D D
12 22 8 4 10 31:39 -8 28
W W D L L
13 23 8 3 12 28:36 -8 27
L W L L D
14 23 7 3 13 34:44 -10 24
W L W D L
15 23 6 4 13 17:39 -22 22
L L L W L
16 23 4 5 14 19:40 -21 17
W L L D L