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BRAZIL › SERIE B
05.09.2026 19:00
Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Referee: Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
Novorizontino
Match Timeline
Avai
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
Madson · Assist: Robson
Novorizontino
⚽
24'
Allyson · Assist: Jean Lucas
Avai
🟨
33'
Douglas Teixeira
Avai
⚽
37'
Rômulo
Novorizontino
⚽
39'
Robson · Assist: Reidiney
Novorizontino
⚽
45'
Romulo · Assist: Jordi
Novorizontino
🟨
46'
Patrick
Novorizontino
🔄
46'
F. Vizeu ↔ Isaias
Avai
🔄
60'
Gabriel Cipriano ↔ Kaua Gabriel
Avai
🔄
60'
Luiz Henrique ↔ Leo Chu
Avai
🟨
61'
Reidiney
Novorizontino
🔄
65'
Reidiney ↔ Matheus Bianqui
Novorizontino
🔄
71'
Douglas Teixeira ↔ V. Immig
Avai
🔄
71'
Wenderson ↔ Ze Ricardo
Avai
🔄
74'
Nicolas Careca ↔ Diego Galo
Novorizontino
🔄
74'
Robson ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
🔄
79'
Madson ↔ Ivan Alvarino
Novorizontino
🔄
79'
Romulo ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino

Novorizontino vs Avai Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.48
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.6%
1.48 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.20 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
2.03 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
2.10 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Novorizontino Win 58.6%
Draw 12.9%
Avai Win 28.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Novorizontino1.48
Avai1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WWDLW
41 GF / 22 GA
Avai Avai
WLDWL
27 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.08
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
12
BTTS Yes
12
14
Over 2.5
11
5.04
Shots on Goal
3.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Novorizontino Novorizontino 25 matches
Avai Avai 25 matches
Novorizontino Statistic Avai
12 Wins 8
7 Draws 5
6 Losses 12
41 Goals For 27
22 Goals Against 31
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
12 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 17
14 Over 2.5 11
6 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 8
5.04 Shots On Goal 3.32
14.64 Total Shots 11.44
6 Corners 3.84
47.7% Ball Possession 47%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Novorizontino's more proactive style and Avai's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Novorizontino arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 43 points compared to Avai in 16 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Avai. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Novorizontino expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Avai in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avai having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 43 points after 25 outings. With 12 wins, 7 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 41:22, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Robson (7 goals), Rômulo (4 goals), Matheus Bianqui (3 goals), with creative support from Rômulo (7 assists), Robson (3 assists), Juninho (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Avai Analysis

Avai approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 29 points from 24 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 27:30 goal record continues to suggest good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking burden often falls on Daniel Penha (3 goals), Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Jean Lucas (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (3 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), Daniel Penha (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Novorizontino won 3 times, Avai won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:8 from Novorizontino's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.38 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.1%)
Predicted formations: Novorizontino 4-2-3-1 / Avai 3-4-3
H2H summary: Novorizontino wins 3, draws 3, Avai wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 32 11 9 12 39:40 -1 42
L D W L D
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17
Avai Away
32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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