ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: E. Reinumagi
Nõmme United
Match Timeline
Flora Tallinn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
33'
R. Sappinen
Flora Tallinn
🟨
42'
N. Kalmokov
Flora Tallinn
🟥
43'
O. Dacosta
Nõmme United
🟨
59'
R. Chanda
Nõmme United
61'
R. Sappinen
Flora Tallinn
🟨
66'
A. Kollo
Flora Tallinn
🔄
67'
R. Valdmets ↔ T. Usta
Flora Tallinn
71'
T. Varjund
Flora Tallinn
🔄
72'
M. Palts ↔ Y. Morishige
Nõmme United
🔄
72'
Z. Beglarishvili ↔ A. Truuvaart
Nõmme United
🔄
72'
A. Frolov ↔ G. Kabal
Nõmme United
🔄
72'
S. Merilai ↔ H. Jarvelaid
Nõmme United
🟨
75'
G. Kabal
Nõmme United
🔄
79'
R. Chanda ↔ I. Krasnov
Nõmme United
🔄
79'
N. Kalmokov ↔ R. Veering
Flora Tallinn
🔄
79'
S. Alamaa ↔ R. Alliku
Flora Tallinn
🔄
79'
A. Kollo ↔ I. Antonov
Flora Tallinn
🔄
79'
T. Varjund ↔ M. Kalimullin
Flora Tallinn
90'
S. Tovstik
Flora Tallinn

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
93.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nõmme United Win 38.7%
Draw 0%
Flora Tallinn Win 61.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nõmme United1.81
Flora Tallinn2.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WWDLW
47 GF / 51 GA
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WLDWL
36 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
2.35
Average Goals Scored
1.89
2.55
Average Goals Conceded
1
17
BTTS Yes
5
19
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nõmme United Nõmme United 20 matches
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 19 matches
Nõmme United Statistic Flora Tallinn
8 Wins 12
2 Draws 1
10 Losses 6
47 Goals For 36
51 Goals Against 19
2.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.89
2.55 Avg Goals Conceded 1
17 BTTS Yes 5
20 Over 1.5 14
19 Over 2.5 12
14 Over 3.5 7
1 Clean Sheets 9
2 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Flora Tallinn's more proactive style and Nõmme United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Flora Tallinn carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 24 points while Nõmme United sit 8 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Flora Tallinn having the stronger overall control. Flora Tallinn look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Flora Tallinn. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nõmme United Analysis

With 13 points from 13 games and a place of 8, Nõmme United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 27:32 goal record continues to suggest mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Frolov (4 goals), O. Dacosta (4 goals), Z. Beglarishvili (4 goals), with creative support from Z. Beglarishvili (4 assists), H. Jarvelaid (4 assists), A. Frolov (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 24 points from 12 games, Flora Tallinn bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a 25:12 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on R. Sappinen (6 goals), S. Zenjov (5 goals), S. Alamaa (4 goals), with creative support from S. Alamaa (5 assists), R. Sappinen (4 assists), S. Zenjov (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United won 0 times, Flora Tallinn won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:18 from Nõmme United's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.86 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Nõmme United wins 0, draws 1, Flora Tallinn wins 6

Lineups

Nõmme United
Formation
Flora Tallinn
G. Lagus
G. Lagus
R. Chanda
R. Chanda
K. Oostenbrink
K. Oostenbrink
M. Palts
M. Palts
K. Laanelaid
K. Laanelaid
O. Dacosta
O. Dacosta
A. Frolov
A. Frolov
S. Merilai
S. Merilai
Z. Beglarishvili
Z. Beglarishvili
B. Chisala
B. Chisala
K. Matas
K. Matas
K. Kivila
K. Kivila
N. Kalmokov
N. Kalmokov
M. Kolobov
M. Kolobov
A. Kollo
A. Kollo
S. Tovstik
S. Tovstik
R. Valdmets
R. Valdmets
V. Kreida
V. Kreida
S. Alamaa
S. Alamaa
T. Varjund
T. Varjund
D. Kuraksin
D. Kuraksin
R. Sappinen
⚽ 2
R. Sappinen
Nõmme United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
G. Lagus
55
R. Chanda
↓ 79' 🟨 59'
26
K. Oostenbrink
6
M. Palts
↓ 72'
23
K. Laanelaid
16
O. Dacosta
🟥 43'
10
A. Frolov
↓ 72'
3
S. Merilai
↓ 72'
49
Z. Beglarishvili
↓ 72'
11
B. Chisala
20
K. Matas
Substitutes
71
G. Purg
91
P. Polda
2
Y. Morishige
↑ 72'
8
B. Vain
9
E. Ounapuu
13
A. Truuvaart
↑ 72'
19
I. Krasnov
↑ 79'
22
A. Radomskiy
24
G. Kabal
↑ 72' 🟨 75'
45
H. Jarvelaid
↑ 72'
Flora Tallinn 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
K. Kivila
2
N. Kalmokov
↓ 79' 🟨 42'
23
M. Kolobov
3
A. Kollo
↓ 79' 🟨 66'
26
S. Tovstik
⚽ 90'
18
R. Valdmets
↓ 67'
32
V. Kreida
29
S. Alamaa
↓ 79'
14
T. Varjund
⚽ 71' ↓ 79'
7
D. Kuraksin
11
R. Sappinen
⚽ 33' ⚽ 61'
Substitutes
33
E. Grunvald
22
A. Tatrik
5
A. Vaher
6
R. Veering
↑ 79'
8
T. Teevali
9
R. Alliku
↑ 79'
17
T. Usta
↑ 67'
24
O. Pihela
67
I. Antonov
↑ 79'
89
M. Kalimullin
↑ 79'
Last matches: Nõmme United
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
24.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Riga
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Ogre United
1
0
W
H2H: Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn
29.05.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
10.03.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
1
L
07.03.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
L
05.10.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
18.08.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
0
L
29.06.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
01.03.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
2
0
L
Last matches: Nõmme United
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
31.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Tammeka
0
6
L
H2H at home: Nõmme United
29.05.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
05.10.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
29.06.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
AIK Stockholm
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
2
D
10.07.25
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Valur Reykjavik
0
3
L
H2H away: Flora Tallinn
29.05.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
W
05.10.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
W
29.06.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga