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ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
18.04.2026 14:00
St. James' Park
Referee: T. Bramall
Newcastle
Match Timeline
Bournemouth
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
32'
M. Tavernier · Assist: Rayan
Bournemouth
🔄
46'
L. Hall ↔ K. Trippier
Newcastle
🟨
52'
Ryan Christie
Bournemouth
🟨
55'
Marcus Tavernier
Bournemouth
🔄
62'
J. Ramsey ↔ Bruno Guimaraes
Newcastle
🔄
62'
A. Elanga ↔ J. Murphy
Newcastle
🔄
65'
R. Christie ↔ T. Adams
Bournemouth
🔄
66'
E. J. Kroupi ↔ D. Brooks
Bournemouth
⚽
68'
W. Osula
Newcastle
VAR
71'
William Osula
Newcastle
🔄
74'
V. Livramento ↔ D. Burn
Newcastle
🟨
77'
Sven Botman
Newcastle
🔄
78'
Rayan ↔ B. Doak
Bournemouth
🟨
80'
Jacob Murphy
Newcastle
🟨
82'
Alex Scott
Bournemouth
⚽
85'
A. Truffert
Bournemouth
🔄
86'
S. Tonali ↔ N. Woltemade
Newcastle
🔄
89'
Evanilson ↔ E. Unal
Bournemouth
🔄
89'
M. Tavernier ↔ A. Toth
Bournemouth
🟨
90+4'
Đorđe Petrović
Bournemouth

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.9%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Newcastle Win 19%
Draw 15.9%
Bournemouth Win 65.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Newcastle1.64
Bournemouth1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Newcastle Newcastle
WWDLW
80 GF / 71 GA
Bournemouth Bournemouth
WLDWL
50 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.51
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
32
BTTS Yes
22
33
Over 2.5
19
5.15
Shots on Goal
4.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Newcastle Newcastle 47 matches
Bournemouth Bournemouth 33 matches
Newcastle Statistic Bournemouth
19 Wins 10
10 Draws 16
18 Losses 7
80 Goals For 50
71 Goals Against 51
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.51 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
32 BTTS Yes 22
39 Over 1.5 25
33 Over 2.5 19
19 Over 3.5 16
12 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 7
5.15 Shots On Goal 4.97
13.43 Total Shots 14.06
6.15 Corners 5.55
51.9% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bournemouth. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Newcastle have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Newcastle Analysis

Newcastle sit 14 with 42 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats with a 45:47 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Bruno Guimarães (9 goals), N. Woltemade (8 goals), Anthony Gordon (6 goals), with creative support from Bruno Guimarães (4 assists), L. Miley (4 assists), N. Woltemade (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Bruno Guimaraes, E. Krafth, F. Schar, Joelinton unavailable.

Bournemouth Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Bournemouth have collected 45 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 10 wins, 15 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 48:49 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Semenyo (15 goals), Eli Junior Kroupi (10 goals), Evanilson (6 goals), with creative support from A. Semenyo (4 assists), M. Tavernier (4 assists), M. Senesi (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with L. Cook, J. Kluivert, J. Soler unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Newcastle won 4 times, Bournemouth won 3 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:22 from Newcastle's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.1%)
Predicted formations: Newcastle 4-2-3-1 / Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Newcastle 4, Bournemouth 3
H2H summary: Newcastle wins 4, draws 8, Bournemouth wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship