BRAZIL SERIE B
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 61.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
61.5%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.6%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 38.5%
Draw 19.7%
Athletic Club Win 41.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.07
Athletic Club1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WWDLW
28 GF / 27 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
24 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
10
BTTS Yes
13
8
Over 2.5
6
4.63
Shots on Goal
3.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 24 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 23 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Athletic Club
8 Wins 8
7 Draws 10
9 Losses 5
28 Goals For 24
27 Goals Against 21
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
10 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 16
8 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 7
4.63 Shots On Goal 3.17
16.08 Total Shots 10.96
5.83 Corners 4.13
57.8% Ball Possession 42%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nautico Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Athletic Club in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Athletic Club having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Athletic Club. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 30 points from 23 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 27:26 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Vinícius (4 goals), Kaua Almeida da Costa (3 goals), Dodô (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club sit 8 with 34 points after 22 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 24:19 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Ian Luccas (4 goals), Max (2 goals), with creative support from Ian Luccas (2 assists), Max (2 assists), Lucas Belezi (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 1 times, Athletic Club won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.3%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Athletic Club 3-4-3
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 1, draws 1, Athletic Club wins 0
Last matches: Nautico Recife
23.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
1
1
D
19.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
14.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
0
D
23.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
16.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
CRB
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Avai
0
2
L
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
3
4
L
14.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
2
2
D
09.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
Last matches: Athletic Club
20.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
CRB
0
2
L
16.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
America Mineiro
3
1
W
09.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Criciuma
2
0
W
28.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
2
1
W
18.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
13.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Ceara
0
0
D
07.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Operario-PR
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Avai
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Londrina
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Goias
1
1
D
11.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Sport Recife
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Fortaleza EC
1
0
W
25.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Botafogo SP
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Juventude
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Cuiaba
0
0
D
04.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Vila Nova
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Novorizontino
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
CRB
3
2
W
H2H: Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club
27.04.26
H2H
Athletic Club
Nautico Recife
0
1
W
21.07.24
H2H
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
2
2
D
Last matches: Nautico Recife
19.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
09.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
09.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
H2H at home: Nautico Recife
21.07.24
H2H
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
2
2
D
Last matches: Athletic Club
16.08.26
Ser
Athletic Club
America Mineiro
3
1
W
28.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
18.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
13.07.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Ceara
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Londrina
0
2
L
11.06.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Sport Recife
1
1
D
25.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Botafogo SP
2
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Vila Nova
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Novorizontino
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
CRB
3
2
W
02.04.26
Ser
Athletic Club
Criciuma
1
1
D
H2H away: Athletic Club
21.07.24
H2H
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
2
2
D

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 12 8 4 25:17 8 44
L D W L D
2 23 12 6 5 24:12 12 42
W D W W L
3 24 12 5 7 35:25 10 41
D W W L L
4 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
5 23 10 7 6 35:20 15 37
W D L W L
6 23 10 6 7 34:32 2 36
W D W W W
7 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
8 23 8 11 4 29:22 7 35
L W W D D
9 23 8 10 5 24:21 3 34
L W W D W
10 24 9 6 9 23:29 -6 33
D L L W L
11 23 8 9 6 24:23 1 33
D L D W W
12 24 7 12 5 21:18 3 33
D W W D D
13 24 8 8 8 33:27 6 32
D D L W L
14 23 8 7 8 28:23 5 31
D W W L W
15 24 8 7 9 28:27 1 31
D W D D D
16 24 8 5 11 27:30 -3 29
W W W L L
17 24 7 7 10 25:30 -5 28
W L L W W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 23 2 5 16 16:39 -23 11
L L L W L
20 24 2 4 18 16:50 -34 10
L L D L D
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