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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
11.07.2026 19:10
Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa
Referee: Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano, Ecuador
Mushuc Runa SC
Match Timeline
Independiente del Valle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
19'
D. Reasco · Assist: E. Pata
Independiente del Valle
⚽
35'
J. Sornoza · Assist: L. Loor
Independiente del Valle
🟨
44'
José Flor
Mushuc Runa SC
⚽
49'
D. Reasco · Assist: L. Loor
Independiente del Valle
🟨
56'
Jhon Espinoza
Independiente del Valle
🔄
58'
J. Gonzalez ↔ A. Zambrano
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
58'
C. Angulo ↔ E. Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
64'
R. Briones ↔ H. Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🔄
64'
A. Rodriguez ↔ M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
64'
J. Sornoza ↔ D. Guagua
Independiente del Valle
⚽
66'
E. Davila
Mushuc Runa SC
VAR
68'
Nicolás Dávila
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
74'
Jhegson Méndez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
75'
J. Hernandez ↔ J. Cusme
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
76'
R. Carrillo ↔ D. Merino
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
76'
J. Mendez ↔ J. Alcivar
Independiente del Valle
🔄
76'
E. Pata ↔ E. Quintero
Independiente del Valle
🟨
85'
José Luis Quiñones
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
88'
R. Ibarra ↔ F. Carabali
Mushuc Runa SC
⚽
90'
M. Perello
Independiente del Valle

Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mushuc Runa SC Win 30.9%
Draw 3.4%
Independiente del Valle Win 65.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mushuc Runa SC1.21
Independiente del Valle1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WWDLW
22 GF / 23 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
48 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
2
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
10
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
14
3.71
Shots on Goal
6.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 17 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 24 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Statistic Independiente del Valle
5 Wins 17
6 Draws 2
6 Losses 5
22 Goals For 48
23 Goals Against 26
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
10 BTTS Yes 12
11 Over 1.5 20
9 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 4
3.71 Shots On Goal 6.39
12.41 Total Shots 19.39
4.29 Corners 6.83
46.9% Ball Possession 59%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Independiente del Valle's more proactive style and Mushuc Runa SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Independiente del Valle. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 40 points while Mushuc Runa SC sit 12 on 18, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mushuc Runa SC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

With 18 points from 16 games and a place of 12, Mushuc Runa SC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats with a 19:21 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Ronie Carrillo (4 goals), Kevin Velasco (2 goals), Renato Ibarra (2 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), Jackson González (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 40 points after 17 outings. The return of 13 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 36:18, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Emerson Pata (6 goals), C. González (5 goals), D. Reasco (4 goals), with creative support from D. Reasco (3 assists), J. Sornoza (3 assists), A. Rodríguez (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mushuc Runa SC won 3 times, Independiente del Valle won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:27 from Mushuc Runa SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Mushuc Runa SC wins 3, draws 3, Independiente del Valle wins 9

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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