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NORWAY › ELITESERIEN
11.10.2026 12:30
Fredrikstad Stadion

Fredrikstad vs Tromso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fredrikstad Win 46.1%
Draw 6.5%
Tromso Win 47.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fredrikstad1.32
Tromso1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
WWDLW
43 GF / 44 GA
Tromso Tromso
WLDWL
57 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.73
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
20
BTTS Yes
13
16
Over 2.5
16
3.76
Shots on Goal
5.04

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 31 matches
Tromso Tromso 33 matches
Fredrikstad Statistic Tromso
13 Wins 17
8 Draws 8
10 Losses 8
43 Goals For 57
44 Goals Against 40
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
20 BTTS Yes 13
25 Over 1.5 24
16 Over 2.5 16
11 Over 3.5 14
6 Clean Sheets 15
6 Failed To Score 10
3.76 Shots On Goal 5.04
11.24 Total Shots 10.85
4.19 Corners 4.7
47.9% Ball Possession 45.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Tromso's more proactive style and Fredrikstad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fredrikstad expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Tromso in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tromso having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tromso. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Tromso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Fredrikstad Analysis

Fredrikstad sit 8 with 28 points after 21 league matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 25:32 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (3 goals), B. Thoresen (3 goals), D. Eid (2 goals), with creative support from S. Leach Holm (2 assists), H. Skogvold (2 assists), Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tromso Analysis

With 38 points from 21 games and a place of 3, Tromso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 40:29, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through H. Larsen (7 goals), A. Warneryd (4 goals), T. Nyhammer (3 goals), with creative support from R. Jenssen (6 assists), T. Nyhammer (2 assists), Jens Hjertø-Dahl (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Fredrikstad won 0 times, Tromso won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:8 from Fredrikstad's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Fredrikstad 3-4-3 / Tromso 5-3-2
H2H summary: Fredrikstad wins 0, draws 2, Tromso wins 3

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 16 2 3 54:20 34 50
W W D W L
2 21 16 2 3 53:19 34 50
L W W W W
3 21 11 5 5 40:29 11 38
W L L D L
4 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
5 21 10 3 8 39:30 9 33
W W W L W
6 21 10 2 9 28:29 -1 32
L W W L D
7 21 9 2 10 39:32 7 29
W L L D W
8 21 8 4 9 25:32 -7 28
D D L W W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 21 6 5 10 21:27 -6 23
W L D D W
12 21 6 5 10 34:43 -9 23
D L D L D
13 21 6 5 10 29:44 -15 23
L L L D L
14 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
15 21 5 4 12 21:40 -19 19
L L W D L
16 21 4 4 13 22:44 -22 16
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen