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09.05.2026 17:30
Referee: G. Tonna
Marsaxlokk
Match Timeline
Hamrun Spartans
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
38'
J. Minala
Marsaxlokk
🔄
46'
Ederson ↔ Jonny
Hamrun Spartans
🔄
75'
R. Mihana ↔ T. Caruana
Marsaxlokk
🔄
75'
K. Serber ↔ B. Eleke
Hamrun Spartans
🔄
81'
D. Simkus ↔ I. Christie-Davies
Marsaxlokk
⚽
89'
M. Garcia
Hamrun Spartans
⚽
98'
J. Minala
Marsaxlokk
🔄
104'
U. Arias ↔ R. Linden
Marsaxlokk
🔄
105+10'
Emerson ↔ Y. Inzoudine
Hamrun Spartans
🔄
114'
Dodo ↔ J. Ghio
Marsaxlokk
🔄
114'
J. C. Corbalan ↔ J. Vella
Marsaxlokk

Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Marsaxlokk Win 45.9%
Draw 14.9%
Hamrun Spartans Win 39.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Marsaxlokk1.19
Hamrun Spartans1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Marsaxlokk Marsaxlokk
WWDLW
42 GF / 36 GA
Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans
WLDWL
63 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.37
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.02
19
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
19
0
Shots on Goal
1.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Marsaxlokk Marsaxlokk 32 matches
Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 46 matches
Marsaxlokk Statistic Hamrun Spartans
16 Wins 21
8 Draws 9
8 Losses 16
42 Goals For 63
36 Goals Against 47
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.02
19 BTTS Yes 17
24 Over 1.5 34
16 Over 2.5 19
7 Over 3.5 10
9 Clean Sheets 20
7 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 1.75
0 Total Shots 5.33
0 Corners 2.25
0% Ball Possession 23.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Marsaxlokk have the edge after taking the first leg 3-2, leaving Hamrun Spartans needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Marsaxlokk. Marsaxlokk look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Marsaxlokk having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Marsaxlokk Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Hamrun Spartans arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 28 points after 16 matches. The return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 26:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by J. Mbong (14 goals), D. Ceter (5 goals), M. Garcia (4 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Hamrun Spartans Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Marsaxlokk arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 31 points after 16 matches. With 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 22:20, they bring very strong form and are on a winning streak into this tie. Going forward they rely on Dodo (12 goals), A. Majok (5 goals), N. Portelli (4 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Marsaxlokk won 5 times, Hamrun Spartans won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:22 from Marsaxlokk's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.85 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.1%)
H2H summary: Marsaxlokk wins 5, draws 1, Hamrun Spartans wins 7

Standings

Premier League , Closing Round
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 4 0 20:7 13 25
W W W L W
2 11 6 4 1 16:4 12 22
W L L W W
3 11 5 4 2 12:12 0 19
L W W W W
4 11 5 3 3 20:18 2 18
L L D L D
5 11 4 5 2 16:7 9 17
L L W L L
6 11 5 2 4 14:12 2 17
L D L W L
7 11 4 4 3 10:11 -1 16
L D D W D
8 11 3 4 4 12:12 0 13
D D D L W
9 11 3 2 6 11:17 -6 11
L W D L D
10 11 2 4 5 13:15 -2 10
W L W D D
11 11 1 3 7 9:21 -12 6
L W W D D
12 11 1 1 9 7:24 -17 4
W D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round